Saward Dawson > Wealth Advisory Insights > Portfolio Update
Portfolio Update: Geopolitical Tensions & Our Response
With escalating tensions involving Iran dominating headlines, we wanted to provide an update on our portfolio approach post a discussion with Akambo Chief Investment Officer, Chris Willaton.
History is instructive. The table below shows S&P 500 returns following every major geopolitical event over the past 75 years. The pattern is consistent: an initial shock, followed by recovery. The median 12-month return after these events is 10.7%.
Your portfolio is built to weather episodes like these. Our diversified allocation across strong balance-sheet Australian and international equities, fixed income, infrastructure and cash underpins your portfolio and includes gold and energy stocks – both of which tend to perform well during periods of geopolitical uncertainty.
A reminder of why staying the course matters: AUD $100,000 invested in the ASX 200 with reinvested dividends at the start of 1995 would be worth roughly AUD $1,500,000 today. Compounding rewards patience.
Our portfolios are well equipped for volatile conditions, and we believe the prudent course is to remain patient and stay focused on long-term objectives. Any changes will be driven by disciplined, fundamental investment analysis rather than geopolitical speculation.
It is also worth noting that this uncertainty arrives amid strong corporate fundamentals:
- US Q4 earnings growth of 14.2% – nearly double the 8.3% expected at the start of reporting season.
- S&P 500 net profit margins hit 13.3% (the highest since 2009).
- ASX first-half reporting delivered the second-strongest season in the last 51 reporting periods.
- Forecast US real GDP growth accelerating toward 5% in 2026, driven by AI-led productivity gains – with potential for high single-digit growth by end of decade (ARK investment research).
These are encouraging fundamentals that underpin the resilience of well-diversified portfolios.
We are monitoring developments closely and will act – and communicate – if our assessment changes. If you have any questions about how current events may affect your specific portfolio, please do not hesitate to contact us.
Mark La Bozzetta
Partner | Strategy & Wealth Advisory
Saward Dawson Wealth Advisors Pty Ltd, a Corporate Authorised Representative of Akambo Pty Ltd t/a Accountants Private Advice
The information presented in this publication is general information only, and is not intended to be financial product advice. It has not been prepared taking into account your investment objectives, financial situation or needs, and should not be used as the basis for making an investment decision. Before making any investment decision you need to consider (with your financial adviser) your particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances.
Some numerical figures in this publication have been subject to rounding adjustments. Akambo Pty Ltd (including any of its directors, officers or employees) will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of any reliance on this information. The market commentary reflect Akambo Pty Ltd’s views and beliefs at the time of preparation, which are subject to change without notice.
