9 November 2026 | Weekly Snapshot
Saward Dawson > Wealth Advisory Insights > Weekly Snapshot > 9 November 2026
Did you know?
The share market doesn’t vote. With the Democrats taking both houses of Congress this week, it is worth asking how much party control matters for share prices. The chart below tracks the S&P 500 since 1950 against the party in the White House. The line climbs through blue and red alike, from around 20 points to more than 7,300.
The worst falls haven’t respected party lines. The 1973–74 bear market came under Nixon and Ford, the dot-com bust straddled Clinton and Bush, the financial crisis hit under Bush and the 2022 sell-off under Biden. Inflation, interest rates, valuations and credit drove them, not the colour of the administration.
This week was a reminder: the S&P 500 had its best day in three months on the election result, then gave it back the next day over one specific policy question: data-centre construction. Policy detail can move sectors; party labels rarely set the market’s direction.
Market Movements
The ASX rose 1.3% for the week, a solid result given Wall Street had its worst week since June, and one that hid a sharp rotation underneath. The fall in oil (below) took Energy down 7.4%, with Woodside (held) and Santos (held) each losing between 7% and 8%. Technology went the other way, up 6.9%, as lower oil eased inflation fears and investors moved back into growth stocks; on Thursday alone the sector jumped 10% and the ASX 200 2.6%. Consumer Staples also had a strong week (+4.8%), led by Woolworths (held, +5.5%).
The best and worst performers in the ASX 100 had very different stories. NEXTDC jumped 77.2% after Goodman Group and US data-centre operator Digital Realty bought up to 9.9% of the company for about $715 million at $9.50 per share. The shares had lost 46% in October, after a power delay at its M3 Melbourne site forced a guidance cut and a freeze on new developments. NEXTDC called the stake-building ‘opportunistic’ and the buyers say they have no current plan to bid, but the share price suggests the market sees that option. It is also a reminder that strategic buyers still value Australian data-centre capacity, even as US policy risk rises. Xero (held) was the other standout, up 13.9% (see Portfolio Insights).
At the other end, AMP fell 12.6% after China Life Pension Company, in which it owns a 19.99% stake, reported lower third-quarter profit; AMP’s own platforms business continues to grow. Eagers Automotive was the weakest of the ASX 100, down 14.4% [driver to confirm].
A fifth hike, but the end may be in sight. The RBA lifted the cash rate by 0.25% to 4.85% on Melbourne Cup day, its fifth increase in this cycle and the highest level in 18 years. With underlying inflation at 3.7% in September, the Board had little choice, and it now expects inflation to stay above 3% through much of 2027.
The more telling detail was the 6–3 vote, with three members preferring to hold. Bond markets read that as a signal the cycle is close to finished: the 2-year yield, the most sensitive to rate expectations, fell around 17 basis points to 4.74% in a week the RBA hiked. CBA and NAB now expect a pause in December; Westpac and ANZ still see a risk of one more.
The bank results showed why the RBA is treading carefully. NAB’s bad-debt charges rose 86% and Westpac’s more than doubled, and NAB chief executive Andrew Irvine said the probability of recession, while not the most likely scenario, has risen.
The Australian dollar fell 2.4% to US$0.69 as markets priced a peak in Australian rates while a strong US jobs report kept a Fed hike on the table.
The S&P 500 fell 2.7% and the Nasdaq 3.4%, but the weekly numbers mask an extraordinary few days. The Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate on Tuesday, and Wednesday’s rally was the S&P 500’s best day in three months, helped by a bond rally on the prospect that divided government will restrain spending.
Thursday was the reverse. Newly elected governors in several key states, including Texas, home to almost 30% of the US data-centre capacity due online in 2028, have called for construction pauses or conditions, and Goldman Sachs estimates around 45% of planned US capacity could face restrictions. The S&P 500 fell more than 4%, the semiconductor index lost 12% and Nvidia 9% in a single session, erasing roughly US$3 trillion of market value. Friday brought only a partial rebound.
The extremes among the 100 largest US companies told the same story. Dell fell 22.6% and Micron (held) 22.0%. Dell dropped 8% on Wednesday and another 11% on Thursday without any company news, as investors worried that a data-centre slowdown would hit AI server orders just as memory costs squeeze its PC business. The best performer was AppLovin, up 71.2% after record results: revenue grew 55% to US$2.18 billion and the company added US$3.2 billion to its buyback. Even after that jump it is still down 42% this year. Gold miner Newmont rose 13.4% with the gold price.
The economic data argued against any slowdown story. October payrolls rose 165,000 against expectations of around 65,000, unemployment fell to 4.1% and the ISM manufacturing index came in at 55.5. Markets now put roughly a 75% probability on a Fed hike in December.
The US electon results took the air out of oil price with Brent crude falling 16% for the week to US$98 a barrel.
US earnings season. With 435 S&P 500 companies having reported, 83% have beaten earnings estimates and third-quarter earnings growth is tracking at 33% year on year (28% excluding Energy). After this week’s fall, the index trades on 18.1 times forward earnings.
Portfolio Insights
AI infrastructure caught in the political crossfire
Micron (MU, held) fell 22.0% over the week, Broadcom (AVGO, held) 9.9%, Nvidia (NVDA, held) 8.8% and the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX, held) 13.1%. The Akambo portfolios are underweight the AI capex names.
In our view this was a re-pricing of risk rather than of demand. State-level restrictions could slow where and how quickly data centres are built, but they do not change the underlying need for compute, memory and power, and Eaton’s order book is evidence of that. We expect the market to start distinguishing between companies with contracted demand and those relying on new US construction approvals.
Software names rally, showing diversification benefits against AI stocks:
Xero (XRO, held) rose 13.9%, most of it on Thursday when the ASX technology sector rallied 10% in a day.
REA Group (REA, held) rose 9.6% after its first-quarter update on Friday. Revenue grew 11% to $450 million and EBITDA 12% to $294 million, even though national listings fell 2%.
The difference was pricing: yield on its core residential ‘Buy’ listings rose 14%. That is the REA story in a sentence, a dominant platform that can lift prices faster than the property market slows, and it was a relief for a stock investors had worried would struggle as higher rates cool housing activity. REA also completed the sale of its Indian business during the quarter.
Uber (UBER, held) rose 5.1% after third-quarter results on Wednesday. Gross bookings grew 20% to US$59.8 billion, the fifth consecutive quarter at that pace, with delivery (+22%) now growing faster than rides (+18%).
Earnings per share of US$0.88 were marginally below the US$0.90 consensus, but fourth-quarter guidance implies earnings growth of more than a third. Uber is moving from testing to commercial roll-out of autonomous vehicles, targeting around 700 fully driverless cars on its platform by year end and more than 2,000 in 2027.
Bank results show a modest rise in arrears, bad debts, the silver donut keeps shining
National Australia Bank (NAB, held) fell 3.6% after its full-year result. Cash earnings fell 13.4% to $6.14 billion, hit by a software accounting charge and an 86% rise in bad-debt charges to $1.55 billion, partly a provision for a weaker economy. Mortgages more than 90 days in arrears rose to 1.09% from 1.0% in March, with much of the deterioration among borrowers relying on business income.
Westpac (WBC, held) was steadier, up 0.6%. Profit excluding one-offs was flat at $7.0 billion and the dividend rose 1% to 154 cents, but the net interest margin slipped 7 basis points to 1.87% and bad-debt charges more than doubled to $864 million. With capital about $2.9 billion above target, Westpac has room for further capital management.
Both results tell the same story: credit costs are rising from low levels as rate hikes bite, and margins are under pressure. ANZ reports on Monday.
Macquarie Group (MQG, held) eased 1.4% despite half-year profit rising 50% to $2.48 billion. Commodities and Global Markets did the heavy lifting, with profit up 83% to $2.03 billion on volatile energy markets, helped by an asset-sale gain in asset management. Macquarie Capital’s contribution fell 61%.
The interim dividend rose to $3.25 from $2.80. Profit was still 22% below the previous half and management kept its customary cautious outlook, which explains the muted reaction.
The Week Ahead
- Monday 9 November — ANZ (held) full-year result: consensus EPS A$2.49, up 28% on FY25’s A$1.95, a base depressed by restructuring and regulatory charges; consensus revenue A$22.6 billion. After NAB and Westpac both reported bad-debt charges up 86–104%, impairments and the margin will be the focus, along with progress on chief executive Nuno Matos’s cost program.
Dyno Nobel (held) also reports: consensus EPS A$0.185, down 18% on A$0.226, revenue A$3.51 billion [FY25 comparative to add].
Constellation Energy (held) reports before the US open: consensus EPS US$3.90, up 28% on US$3.04 [revenue consensus and comparative to add]. After this week, its commentary on data-centre power contracts and state-level restrictions matters more than the quarter itself. - Tuesday 10 November —US CPI (Oct) headline consensus +0.3% m/m (prior +0.6%), core +0.2% m/m (prior +0.3%). There will be no annual rate this month because October 2025 prices were never collected during the government shutdown; the last annual reading was 3.7% in September, with core at 2.6%. Lower petrol prices through October should soften the headline. A December Fed hike is around 75% priced in.
- Thursday 12 November — Xero (held) half-year result: consensus revenue NZ$1.39 billion and EPS NZ$0.28. After this week’s 14% rally the focus is subscriber growth, progress in US payments through Melio, and whether margins hold as AI investment rises.
Siemens (held) fourth quarter: consensus EPS €2.82, up 36% on €2.08, revenue €23.2 billion. Data-centre electrification orders are the cross-check on Eaton’s strong numbers.
Orica (held) full year: consensus EPS A$1.22, up 11% on A$1.11, revenue A$8.11 billion - Friday 13 November — US PPI (Oct) headline consensus +0.4% m/m (prior +1.3%), annual 6.6% (prior 6.3%), core +0.3% m/m (prior +0.7%). Producer prices have run well ahead of consumer prices because of the oil shock. With Brent down sharply in early November, relief should start to show in next month’s data, but October may still be hot enough to keep the Fed on edge.
Saward Dawson Wealth Advisors Pty Ltd, a Corporate Authorised Representative of Akambo Pty Ltd t/a Accountants Private Advice
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Some numerical figures in this publication have been subject to rounding adjustments. Akambo Pty Ltd (including any of its directors, officers or employees) will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of any reliance on this information. The market commentary reflect Akambo Pty Ltd’s views and beliefs at the time of preparation, which are subject to change without notice.
