9 February 2026 | Weekly Snapshot
Saward Dawson > Wealth Advisory Insights > Weekly Snapshot > 9 February 2026
Did you know?
The big tech companies in the USA are continuing to increase their spending budgets on ‘Ai’ infrastructure. We are over halfway through quarterly reporting season in the US and the major tech companies continue to reveal eye-watering investment budgets as shown by the below chart. It is a market continuing to move at ‘break-neck’ pace with broad investor implications, including returns from our big tech stocks and employment. Investor reactions were mixed towards these growing spending announcements, with Alphabet moving higher whilst Amazon was sold off.
Market Movements
The ASX market was lower by 2.3%. Beneath the surface, we saw some extreme moves in tech stocks (down 10.8%) and resources (down 4.1%) whilst financials were higher by 1.5%. Investors took a knife to tech and software companies, forming a view that ‘AI’ is moving fast and that this will bring a whole new wave of competition to existing tech/software stocks. Wisetech (down 17.9%), Pro Medicus (down 14%) were among the weekly casualties. CBA was higher by 6.4%, reflecting some investor preference for the ‘real economy’, where AI is less of a threat.
Similar story in the USA. The broader index (S&P500) was almost flat, but this was misleading for what was a volatile weak for AI related companies in particular. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index was lower by 1.8% with Oracle and PayPal among the bigger losers, down 13% and 23% respectively. Again, ‘real world’ stocks performed well with FedEx higher by 15% and Pepsi up 11%.
On economics, the RBA hiked interest rates by 0.25%, which was expected. Markets have factored in another rate rise by the middle of the year with a high level of certainty. Domestic inflation is running over target at 3.8% and we will need to see that come down before the RBA will be thinking about cutting again. The US December job openings report fell to 6.54 million vacancies, the lowest since late 2020 and well below market expectations of 7.2 million. The January ISM Services PMI was steady at 53.8 , holding at late 2024 highs and ahead of the 53.5 expected pointing to another robust expansion in the services sector.
With plenty of market volatility, particularly in tech stocks, we take this opportunity to reflect on the fundamentals of the tech-heavy Nasdaq index in the USA (chart below), which shows a 5-year chart of Price (green/red bars), earnings per share (or EPS in green) and valuation (or the price-to-earnings ratio or the ‘PE’ blue line). This reporting season has shown slowing expectations for earnings growth in the coming 12 months (reflected by the modest stabilisation in the green line recently). At the same time, valuations remain quite high with the price-to-earnings ratio (blue) still sitting at 26. Taken together, the fundamental story reveals some downside risks. Against this, we have a US president who is doing his best to accelerate real incomes across his voting constituents ahead of the mid term elections in Nov-26.
Portfolio Movements
Rio Tinto abandons Glencore merger talks on valuation disagreement, RIO shares higher
- Rio Tinto has announced it is no longer pursuing a merger with Glencore after the two sides failed to agree on valuation, ending what would have been a $300 billion deal creating the world’s largest mining company.
- This marks the third time merger talks between the pair have collapsed, following previous attempts in 2014 and late 2024. Glencore said the terms offered “significantly undervalued” its copper business and growth pipeline.
Google beats Q4 estimates – Provides big capex guidance increase
- Leading internet search and advertising company and serious AI leader contender, Google, has posted a strong Q4 result with Q4 EPS up 31% to $2.82 well ahead of the $2.63 expected and Cloud revenue up 48%.
- CEO Sundar Pichai said “It was a tremendous quarter for Alphabet and annual revenues exceeded $400 billion for the first time. The launch of Gemini 3 was a major milestone and we have great momentum… Search saw more usage than ever before, with AI continuing to drive an expansionary moment.”
- The company also raised FY2026 capex guidance to $180 billion, way above the $116B expected. Google shares slightly lower in aftermarket trading after surging 80% in the last 6 months.
Amazon Q4 mixed – Shares lower on $200B capex guidance
- Amazon reported Q4 revenue of $213.4B, up 14% year on year and ahead of the $211.3B expected. However, EPS of $1.95 narrowly missed the $1.97 consensus. Full year 2025 revenue crossed $700B for the first time in corporate history.
- AWS was the standout, with revenue up 24% to $35.6B with CEO Jassy noting “very high demand” for AI workloads with capacity being monetised as fast as it can be installed. Advertising also grew 23% to $21.3B.
- Shares fell on the 2026 capex guidance of approximately $200B, well above the $146B analysts expected and a more than 50% increase on 2025’s $132B.
The Week Ahead
- Monday 9 Feb: Australia Household Spending YoY (Dec) 5.8% (prior 5.0%), Household Spending MoM (Dec) 0.1% (prior -0.4%). China Money Supply M2 YoY (Jan) 8.3% (prior 8.5%).
- Tuesday 10 Feb: USA Import Price Index Mom (Dec) 0.1% (prior 0.0%).
- Wednesday 11 Feb: USA Retail Sales Advance MoM (Dec) 0.4% (prior 0.6%), Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) 69k (prior 50k). China PPI YoY (Jan) -1.5% (prior -1.9%), CPI YoY (Jan) 0.4% (prior 0.8%).
- Thursday 12 Feb: USA Unemployment Rate (Jan) 4.4% (prior 4.4%).
- Friday 13 Feb: USA Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 7) 224k (prior 231k), Existing Home Sales (Jan) 4.20m (prior 4.35m).
- Saturday 14 Feb: USA CPI MoM (Jan) 0.3% (prior 0.3%), Core CPI MoM (Jan) 0.3% (prior 0.2%), CPI YoY (Jan) 2.5% (prior 2.7%), Core CPI YoY (Jan) 2.5% (prior 2.6%).
Saward Dawson Wealth Advisors Pty Ltd, a Corporate Authorised Representative of Akambo Pty Ltd t/a Accountants Private Advice
The information presented in this publication is general information only, and is not intended to be financial product advice. It has not been prepared taking into account your investment objectives, financial situation or needs, and should not be used as the basis for making an investment decision. Before making any investment decision you need to consider (with your financial adviser) your particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances.
Some numerical figures in this publication have been subject to rounding adjustments. Akambo Pty Ltd (including any of its directors, officers or employees) will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of any reliance on this information. The market commentary reflect Akambo Pty Ltd’s views and beliefs at the time of preparation, which are subject to change without notice.
