5 October 2026 | Weekly Snapshot
Saward Dawson > Wealth Advisory Insights > Weekly Snapshot > 5 October 2026
Did you know?
Last Tuesday’s hike to 4.60% gave Australia the highest policy rate among the major developed economies (chart), above the US, the UK and New Zealand for the first time this cycle.
Australia’s treasurer, Jim Chalmers, has blamed high interest rates on the oil crisis in Iran. But this argument seems a bit hollow given we are not the only country dealing with high oil prices. Domestic government spending is running at 26.6%, which is probably a key contributor.
Market Movements
The ASX ended the week roughly where it started, an unremarkable result for a week that brought a fourth rate hike and a jump in inflation. The more interesting move was underneath: technology was the best-performing sector in the same week borrowing costs rose,
Northern Star (not held) gained 8.6% after rejecting the A$38.7 billion approach from Gold Fields. Healthcare and energy were the weakest sectors, with energy following oil lower.
A fourth hike, and an inflation print that backs it up
The RBA lifted the cash rate by 25 basis points on Tuesday in a unanimous decision, taking rates to their highest level since 2011. The board pointed to energy prices running well above its August assumptions, AI-driven demand lifting global technology prices, and businesses telling its liaison staff they plan further price rises. Rates have now risen by a full percentage point this year, more than unwinding the 0.75 points of cuts made in 2025.
The case was strengthened the following day. August’s monthly CPI jumped to 4.0% from 3.5%, although trimmed mean inflation, which strips out the most volatile price moves, held at 3.6%. Fuel is doing most of the damage to the headline, but underlying inflation remains well above the 2–3% target band, and the board has said it will move again if needed.
Bond markets have reached a similar conclusion. The Australian 10-year yield now sits above its US equivalent, a sign investors see Australian inflation as the stickier of the two problems.
US shares were broadly flat, with gains in technology offset by weakness in the large banks (more below). Friday’s jobs report was soft: the economy added just 29,000 jobs in September against 84,000 expected, earlier months were revised down by 60,000, and unemployment rose to 4.2%. Shares rose on the news because it lowers the odds of a second Fed hike at the 27–28 October meeting, following September’s first increase since 2023.
That reading may prove optimistic. The ISM manufacturing survey’s prices-paid index jumped to 77.9 from 71.1, well above the 72.3 expected, so cost pressure in the pipeline is still building. Hiring is slowing while prices are not, which is the combination the Fed least wants to face.
The US-Iran conflict and the oil price. Brent crude rose around 14% in September, its biggest monthly gain since July, before giving some of that back this week. Renewed Pakistan-mediated talks between Washington and Tehran, recovering Saudi exports and a French proposal on Friday for a coordinated 100 million barrel release of emergency stocks pushed Brent back below US$100.
The underlying position has not changed. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, President Trump has played down any concessions to Tehran, and he has reportedly told aides he expects to resume strikes after next month’s midterm elections. OPEC+ meets on Sunday and is expected to keep November output targets unchanged. Analysts polled by Reuters have lifted their 2026 average Brent forecast to US$89 from US$85 a month ago.
US earnings consensus. FactSet’s latest earnings update (2 October) shows analysts expecting S&P 500 earnings growth of 29.5% for the September quarter, up from 26.7% at the end of June. The forward price-to-earnings ratio is 19.0, in line with its 10-year average. With bond yields where they are, the market is paying an ordinary multiple for extraordinary earnings growth. That leaves earnings, rather than rising valuations, to do the work, which makes the reporting season that starts in mid-October unusually important.
Bank of America (held) fell 5.2% and JPMorgan (held) 3.1% as investors trimmed the large US banks ahead of third-quarter results, which begin in mid-October. Bank of America has already warned that investment banking fees will fall 10–20% on last year, and a small (US$39 million) legal settlement at its Merrill Lynch arm added to the pressure. JPMorgan fell despite announcing a US$20 billion partnership with the Qatar Investment Authority.
The concern is that the exceptional trading revenues of the June quarter will not repeat. Net interest income, the core lending earnings, is holding up, with Bank of America still tracking toward the top of its 6–8% growth range. We read the sell-off as positioning rather than any change in credit quality.
Portfolio Insights
GIC and Ares preparing offers for Rio Tinto infrastructure assets.
The AFR reported on the weekend that GIC and Ares are preparing offers for Rio Tinto’s (held) infrastructure assets. GIC is reportedly interested in both the Pilbara and Canadian assets, which together likely worth around A$7.0 billion, with indicative bids due in mid-October.
Earlier media reports named Blackstone, Apollo, Stonepeak and KKR as expected participants.
The sale centres on the power generation and transmission assets that supply Rio’s Pilbara iron ore operations. Rio is reportedly expected to retain its Pilbara rail network. Rio has made no announcement on the reports.
Micron (held), which we added to the portfolio recently, slipped 0.7% for the week despite one of the strongest results we have seen from a large company. Fourth-quarter revenue of US$54.2 billion was almost five times the year-ago figure and well ahead of the roughly US$51 billion expected, with adjusted earnings per share of US$33.42 comfortably ahead of consensus. Guidance for the December quarter is stronger again, at about US$61.5 billion of revenue.
The driver is high-bandwidth memory (HBM), the specialised stacked memory that sits alongside AI chips from Nvidia and others. Supply is tight enough that most of Micron’s 2027 HBM output is already contracted at significantly higher prices, and the company is co-designing the industry’s first custom HBM with Nvidia.
The muted share price reaction came from the spending side: Micron is lifting investment heavily, including two new HBM campuses, and memory has historically been a business where industry-wide over-building ends the good times. That is the key risk we are watching. For now, long-term customer contracts covering around a third of production through 2030 make this cycle look better protected than past ones.
Accenture (held) rose 12.9% for the week after its largest single-day gain on record on Thursday. Fourth-quarter revenue of US$18.7 billion grew 7% in local currency, ahead of the US$18.0 billion consensus, and earnings per share of US$3.29 beat the US$3.18 expected. A record 141 clients signed bookings worth more than US$100 million each, guidance for fiscal 2027 came in above expectations, and the dividend was lifted 5%.
The result matters beyond the numbers. Accenture’s shares had fallen by roughly a third from December levels on fears that AI would replace the consultants and coders it sells. This quarter suggests the opposite, for now: companies need help putting AI to work, and Accenture is being paid to provide it.
Set against Micron the same week, the lesson is about expectations. Micron’s result was far larger and its shares went backwards; Accenture’s was solid rather than spectacular and its shares had their best day ever. What a company reports matters less than what the share price had already assumed.
The Week Ahead
- Monday 5 October: OPEC+ meets Sunday and is expected to leave November production targets unchanged; any surprise lands directly on the oil price and on the RBA’s inflation outlook. On Monday, US ISM Services PMI (Sep) consensus [55.1–55.7]
- Wednesday 7 October: FOMC minutes from the 15–16 September meeting, the Fed’s first rate rise since 2023. The key question is how many members saw further hikes as likely. Friday’s soft jobs data has already pulled back expectations of an October move, so hawkish minutes would challenge that repricing.
- Results: no Akambo holdings report this week. US bank earnings season begins the following week, and we will preview our Bank of America and JPMorgan holdings in next week’s edition.
Saward Dawson Wealth Advisors Pty Ltd, a Corporate Authorised Representative of Akambo Pty Ltd t/a Accountants Private Advice
The information presented in this publication is general information only, and is not intended to be financial product advice. It has not been prepared taking into account your investment objectives, financial situation or needs, and should not be used as the basis for making an investment decision. Before making any investment decision you need to consider (with your financial adviser) your particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances.
Some numerical figures in this publication have been subject to rounding adjustments. Akambo Pty Ltd (including any of its directors, officers or employees) will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of any reliance on this information. The market commentary reflect Akambo Pty Ltd’s views and beliefs at the time of preparation, which are subject to change without notice.
