4 May 2026 | Weekly Snapshot
Saward Dawson > Wealth Advisory Insights > Weekly Snapshot > 4 May 2026
Did you know?
Australians keep spending — just not on booze. Total retail sales have surged 49% since 2016, but Endeavour’s bottle shop revenue ( owner of Dan Murphy’s) is up just 31%. The COVID lockdown drinking boom reversed sharply once pubs reopened, and cost-of-living pressures are squeezing alcohol budgets harder than other categories. Or do Australian’s just love a drink a little bit less these days?
Market Movements
US equities lead gains last week with the S&P 500 up 0.9% and NASDAQ +0.9%. The resilience is remarkable given Hormuz remains effectively shut and oil at $108/bbl. Big tech is behind those gains with some very strong quarterly results including for Amazon, Alphabet, Apple and Microsoft.
Australia wasn’t as lucky — the All Ords slipped 0.4% and is now down 0.7% for the year, dragged by sharp falls in healthcare (-3.0%), consumer staples (-4.9%) and property (-1.4%). Energy remains the standout on both sides of the Pacific: ASX energy +3.9% for the week and +31.3% CYTD, global energy +3.5% and +31.8% CYTD.
Stock-level movers worth noting: Alphabet rallied 10.1% after strong earnings results, and locally Liontown jumped 15.8% (now +67.6% CYTD) on the lithium recovery. On the other side, Domino’s dropped 8% and is down 22.3% for the year, Consumer staples (-4.9%) and healthcare (-3.0%, -24.7% CYTD) continue to underperform, reflecting the rotation into hard assets and away from ‘defensive’ growth.
In commodities, gold gave back 1% to $4,624/oz but remains up 7% CYTD. WTI crude sits at $108, +77.8% CYTD — the single most important number in all of markets right now. Iron ore held steady at $108. The A$ at US$0.72 is up 8.1% CYTD, partly reflecting commodity strength and partly the broad USD weakening as the Fed’s credibility fractures.
On interest rates, consensus shows strong likelihood that the RBA will increase interest rates to 4.35% this week. Australian 2-year yields ticked up 7bp to 4.72%, pricing in further tightening. The US 10-year edged to 4.33%. The US Initial Jobless Claims sank by 26,000 from the previous week to 189,000 and the lowest since 1969.
The USA’s FOMC held rates at 3.50–3.75% as expected — but the real story was four dissents, the most since October 1992, with officials split on whether further cuts should even remain on the table. Powell signalled he intends to remain on the Board indefinitely, citing an ongoing investigation into Federal Reserve renovations, even as the Senate Banking Committee advanced Kevin Warsh’s nomination as the next Fed Chair. Markets digested the fracture — this is no longer a consensus Fed.
On the Iran front, the war enters its tenth week. The ceasefire is holding in name — no direct US-Iran fire since April 7 — but the dual blockade (Iran blocking the strait, US blocking Iranian ports) persists. Iran has submitted a 14-point counter-proposal calling for the war to be resolved within 30 days rather than the US-proposed 60-day extension. Trump rejected Tehran’s latest 14-point proposal, saying the US may be “better off” if no deal is reached. Israel and Hezbollah continue exchanging fire in southern Lebanon despite the declared ceasefire.
Portfolio Movements
Amazon Q1 beats – AWS posts fastest growth in 15 quarters
- Amazon reported Q1 EPS of $2.78 well ahead of the $1.64 expected, with revenue of $181.5B also beating the $177.3B expected and up 17% year-on-year.
- AWS revenue rose 28% to $37.6B, the fastest growth in 15 quarters, with operating income up 23% to $14.16B; advertising revenue jumped 24% to $17.24B and Amazon’s chips business is now at a $20B run rate growing triple digits.
- Q2 guidance for revenue of $194-199B (16-19% growth) was ahead of expectations, although shares slid more than 3% after-hours as free cash flow over the past 12 months fell 95% to just $1.2B due to AI infrastructure spending. Shares up around 3% in after-hours trading.
Alphabet beats with cloud accelerating to 63% growth – capex lifted again
- Alphabet reported Q1 revenue of $109.9B beating the $107B expected, up 22% year-on-year and the fastest quarterly growth since 2022; reported EPS of $5.11 was inflated by a $36.9B unrealised gain on equity securities.
- Google Cloud revenue surged to $20.03B versus $18.4B expected, growing 63% year-on-year, with cloud backlog nearly doubling quarter-on-quarter to $460B; operating margin expanded to 36.1% from 33.9%.
- The company lifted its 2026 capex guidance to $180-190B from $175-185B, but the strong cloud and search numbers drove shares up around 7% in after-hours trading.
Apple Q2 FY26 — record March quarter, $100 billion buyback authorised
- Apple posted record quarterly revenue of $111.2 billion, up 17% year on year and ahead of the $109.7 billion consensus, with diluted EPS of $2.01 also beating the $1.95 expected. Services revenue reached an all-time high of $30.9 billion (+16%).
- iPhone revenue of $57.0 billion was just below consensus expectations of $56.5 billion in some calculations and just above in others; management cited supply constraints and called the iPhone 17 the “most popular line-up in our history”. Greater China revenue was a notable bright spot at $20.5 billion (vs $16.0 billion year ago).
- The board authorised an additional $100 billion share buyback and lifted the quarterly dividend to $0.27 per share. Q3 revenue is guided up 14-17% year on year.
The Week Ahead
- Monday 5 May: Trump’s “Project Freedom” begins — the US will start escorting commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s parliament is moving to legislate restrictions on which vessels can pass and has warned any US interference is a ceasefire violation.
- Tuesday 6 May: Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision — expected to hike 25bp to 4.35%, which would be the third consecutive increase, driven by the oil-induced inflationary impulse. The accompanying statement will be dissected for any signal that the Board sees the tightening cycle nearing its peak. Also: USA ISM Services PMI and JOLTS job openings — the demand-side picture after last week’s ISM Manufacturing framed the supply side.
- Wednesday 7 May: USA ADP Employment — the private payrolls preview ahead of Friday’s NFP. ADP has been reporting average weekly private payroll growth around 40,000, indicating a healthy but less than robust jobs picture.
- Friday 9 May: USA Nonfarm Payrolls (April) — the week’s global anchor. Consensus +73,000 (prior +178,000). After March’s surprise recovery from the February −92,000 trough, this reading will determine whether the labour market is stabilising or weakening under the combined weight of the oil shock, tariffs, and softer consumer confidence. A print below 50K reignites recession fears. The unemployment rate (consensus 4.3%) is what matters most for the Fed.
Saward Dawson Wealth Advisors Pty Ltd, a Corporate Authorised Representative of Akambo Pty Ltd t/a Accountants Private Advice
The information presented in this publication is general information only, and is not intended to be financial product advice. It has not been prepared taking into account your investment objectives, financial situation or needs, and should not be used as the basis for making an investment decision. Before making any investment decision you need to consider (with your financial adviser) your particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances.
Some numerical figures in this publication have been subject to rounding adjustments. Akambo Pty Ltd (including any of its directors, officers or employees) will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of any reliance on this information. The market commentary reflect Akambo Pty Ltd’s views and beliefs at the time of preparation, which are subject to change without notice.
