4 August 2025 | Weekly Snapshot

Saward Dawson > Wealth Advisory Insights > Weekly Snapshot > 4 August 2025

Did you know?

The below chart shows the yearly level of net migration to Australia and is colour coded by Prime Minister. Did you know that when compared to any previous government, net migration has been highest under Albanese?

Market Movements

The Australian market was lower by 0.5% last week led by resources (down 2.5%). Iron ore prices were flat and copper prices were lower 2.5% (London Metal Exchange). For companies who sell copper into the USA, the ‘COMEX’ copper price prevails. The COMEX price feel over 20% and continues to be whip-sawed by a confusing Trump-led tariff framework. Australia headline inflation rose 2.1% y/y, with core inflation (ex-energy and food prices) rising 2.7% y/y, which is a step down from the first quarter’s 2.9%. With the core inflation rate now within the upper half the RBA’s target band, there is little reason for the RBA to resist a rate cut this month.

In the USA, markets were lower by 2.4% with only the utilities sector rising (up 1.6%). We are at the start of reporting season, where we have seen some strong results from Apple, Meta and Microsoft. U.S GDP expanded at a great pace (higher by 3.0%), which sent the US$ soaring and the A$ falling along with gold. Yet in a reversal of this economic tide, the July nonfarm payrolls were weak, with +73K jobs being created for the month. This was below the 110K job gain expected and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from prior 4.1%. In response, bond yields fell sharply and interest rate cut odds surged along with interest rate sensitive assets such as gold.

US reporting season provided some helpful guidance from the large cap tech stocks around AI CAPEX spend, which is the primary driver of Nvidia earnings. The below quarterly chart shows investors is that the AI Capex boom continues. The rate of growth, however, is quite lumpy. When we zoom out to the annual figures, 2026 is showing a growth rate of 15% (give or take), which is modestly below the 2025 growth rate. High growth rates lead to high valuation multiples and vice versa, and this is helpful for investors to determine the fair value of these high growth AI stocks.

Portfolio Movements

Apple beats Q3 estimates – best quarter since 2021

Apple has reported a strong Q3 with EPS of $1.57 ahead of the $1.43 expected. Q3 revenue $94.04 billion was a decent beat $89.53 billion expected with iPhone revenue, its largest segment, at $44.58 billion well ahead of the $40.22 billion expected.
iPhone sales grew 13% year over year and overall revenue grew 10%, making it the largest quarterly revenue growth for the company since December 2021 on strong iPhone 16 sales.
The services business, 2nd largest segment, also grew revenue 13% to $27.42 billion. CEO Tim Cook said they incurred $800 million in tariff costs in the June quarter, but that was lower than the $900 million estimate the company provided in May.

Amazon beats Q2 estimates – Q3 guide underwhelms

Amazon has reported another strong quarter with Q2 EPS of $1.68 well ahead of the $1.33 expected. Revenue of $167.70B is a Q2 record with North America sales up 11% y/y to $100.1B and international sales up 16% y/y to $36.8B. Sales in the web-services division (AWS) increased 17.5% y/y to $30.9B, a bit sluggish compared to other cloud providers, such as Microsoft.
AI was a focus on the analyst call with CEO Jassy saying their conviction that AI will change every customer experience is starting to play out. Amazon having expanded Alexa+, and their AI shopping agents. Today, Amazon’s AI agents are already being used by millions of customers.
Shares traded lower on what looks like a softer Q3 guide with Operating Income expected to be between $15.5 billion and $20.5 billion for Q3, with the midpoint a bit below the current $19.49B consensus.

Novo Nordisk reports Q2 earnings – Lowers guidance

Danish pharmaceutical giant and diabetes and weight loss drug leader was amongst the softer reports. Q2 EPS of DKK5.96 was largely in line with the DKK6.03 expected with Q2 sales growth +18% and EBIT growth +40%.
The FY guidance disappointed with sales growth downgraded to the +8-14% range from prior guidance of +13-21%.
The lowered guidance was driven by lower growth expectations for Wegovy in the US obesity market, lower growth expectations for Ozempic in the US diabetes market, as well as lower-than expected penetration for Wegovy in select international markets.

The Week Ahead

Tuesday 5 August: USA Factory Orders (Jun) -4.8% (prior 8.2%), Durable Goods Orders (Jun F) -9.3% (prior -9.3%), Trade Balance (Jun) -$61.3b (prior -$71.5b).
Wednesday 6 August: USA ISM Services Index (Jul) 51.5 (prior 50.8).
Thursday 7 August: USA, Initial Jobless Claims (Aug 2) 221k (prior 218k). Australia Trade Balance (Jun) A$3,250m (prior A$2,238m). China Trade Balance (Jul) $105.55b (prior $114.77b), Exports YoY (Jul) 5.5% (prior 5.8%), Imports YoY (Jul) -1.0% (prior 1.1%). United Kingdom Bank of England Bank Rate 4.0% (current 4.25%).
Friday 8 August: USA Wholesale Inventories MoM (Jun F) 1,947k (prior 1,946k).
Saturday 9 August: China PPI YoY (Jul) -3.3% (prior -3.6%), CPI YoY (Jul) -0.1% (prior 0.1%).

More Weekly Snapshots

Saward Dawson Wealth Advisors Pty Ltd, a Corporate Authorised Representative of Akambo Pty Ltd t/a Accountants Private Advice

The information presented in this publication is general information only, and is not intended to be financial product advice. It has not been prepared taking into account your investment objectives, financial situation or needs, and should not be used as the basis for making an investment decision. Before making any investment decision you need to consider (with your financial adviser) your particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances.

Some numerical figures in this publication have been subject to rounding adjustments. Akambo Pty Ltd (including any of its directors, officers or employees) will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of any reliance on this information. The market commentary reflect Akambo Pty Ltd’s views and beliefs at the time of preparation, which are subject to change without notice.