30 March 2026 | Weekly Snapshot
Saward Dawson > Wealth Advisory Insights > Weekly Snapshot > 30 March 2026
Did you know?
The Strait of Hormuz is also a critical choke point for globally traded fertilizer. Approx 20% of key fertiliser inputs, including urea and phosphate, needs to pass through this shipping route. We are starting to see a spike in the price of urea (chart below). The longer it takes to resume normal shipping flows through the Strait, the more risk of seeing elevated food prices and food shortages in the months ahead.
Market Movements
The Australian equity market rose 1.0% last week, a welcome recovery led by resources (up 5.9%) and industrials (up 2.0%). PLS Group was the standout, up 20.9%, alongside Evolution Mining, up 8.4%, with gold stabilising to US$4,492/oz. Oil held above US$112 per barell (up 12.6% for the week) and energy stocks were modestly higher (up 0.9%). On the downside, healthcare fell 1.7%, technology dropped 1.9% and financials edged lower with NAB down 6.2%. Consumer discretionary managed a small gain of 0.7%, although this sector remains down 14.4% year to date.
The Australian dollar weakened to US$0.69, down 2.4% for the week and now down 10.6% year to date. The Australian 10-year bond yield sits at 5.12% whilst the 2-year yield is at 4.77%. Bond yields are rallying with the expectations that inflation will move towards 5% over the course of this year in response to higher energy prices and the disruption to trade flows.
Overseas, US stocks were lower with the S&P 500 down 3.2% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq down 4.6%. China was a bright spot with the Shenzhen A-Share index up 4.0%. Japan rose 4.5%, benefiting from its large strategic oil reserves. Europe was flat whilst India fell 1.3%. Germany’s DAX is now down 8.9% year to date. In terms of global sectors, energy (up 4.3%) and materials (up 2.7%) led, whilst communication services (down 6.8%) and information technology (down 4.6%) underperformed. SLB was up 14.7% on continued oil strength. Micron Technology fell 15.5% and Coinbase fell 19.5%.
Update on Iran/USA conflict in the Strait of Hormuz
The outlook for markets remains highly uncertain. While any cessation of hostilities would be enthusiastically welcomed by markets, the damage to energy production facilities and diplomatic relationships will take longer to assess and repair.
All things considered, the exit path looks messy and suggests pre-conflict conditions are unlikely to return in the short term, if at all. This could mean higher oil prices for longer and significant brand damage to ‘team-USA and an associated weakening in the US$.
For the Akambo managed accounts, our current position includes an overweight to oil stocks, gold stocks and an underweight to US companies. We have built a modest cash buffer but are yet to see a clear path to deploy this cash until we see a clearer exit path.
Portfolio Movements
Meta falls on landmark court losses – Will appeal
- Meta shares fell last week following two major court defeats in as many days. A New Mexico jury ordered Meta to pay US$375 million for violating state consumer protection law by misleading users about platform safety and enabling child sexual exploitation.
- In a separate case, a Los Angeles jury found both Meta and YouTube negligent in the first social media addiction trial to go to verdict, awarding US$6 million in damages. The ruling established that Meta’s and YouTube’s platform designs were a substantial factor in causing harm.
- Investors are focused on the broader implications of the rulings for Big Tech, with more than 1,600 further plaintiffs including over 350 families and 250 school districts awaiting trial. Meta has said it will appeal both verdicts.
ASX on track for record futures trading month amid geopolitical volatility
- Market operator ASX announced that Australia’s listed derivatives market is on track for its largest month of futures trading on record, with volumes already surpassing 28 million contracts, exceeding the previous monthly record set during the height of the COVID-19 market shock in March 2020.
- On 11 March, ASX’s futures market recorded its largest ever trading day by volume with 4.04 million contracts traded, 5.75% above the previous historic record set in December 2025. Cash equity markets also saw heightened activity with $27.10 billion in traded value on 20 March, the second-largest equities trading day ever. ASX typically averages around $7 billion a day in cash equity markets trading values.
Xero announces multi-year partnership with Anthropic
- Xero announced a multi-year partnership with Anthropic, the company behind Claude AI, that will bring Claude’s AI directly into Xero and Xero’s financial data and tools into the Claude.ai platform. The integration is expected to be available in the coming months.
- Xero’s AI financial assistant JAX (Just Ask Xero), powered by Claude’s reasoning capabilities, will automate tasks across accounting, payroll and payments, including analysing revenue and profit performance, tracking real-time cash flow, and identifying unpaid invoices. Separately, Xero users will be able to work with their live financial data inside Claude.ai for business planning and scenario analysis.
- Xero’s engineering teams will also adopt Anthropic’s Claude Code and Cowork tools to accelerate product development. Financial data shared between the platforms will be used solely for user sessions and will not be used to train Claude’s AI models. Xero serves 4.6 million subscribers globally.
The Week Ahead
- Monday 30 March: Fed Chair Powell speaks (alongside Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index) — his first public remarks since the FOMC held rates and left the dot plot unchanged. Markets will parse every word for signals on how the committee is weighting tariff-driven and oil-driven inflation versus labour market weakness. China NBS Manufacturing PMI (Mar) consensus ~50.2 (prior 49.0) — a return above 50 would signal expansion for the first time since December, a positive signal for commodity markets.
- Tuesday 31 March: USA Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Mar) consensus ~88 (prior 91.2). The index has already fallen sharply from its November 2024 peak of 112.8. USA JOLTS Job Openings (Feb) — watch for further signs of labour market cooling, particularly in sectors exposed to higher energy costs.
- Wednesday 1 April: USA ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar) consensus 52.3 (prior 52.4) — the headline is expected to hold near expansion territory, but the Prices Paid component (consensus ~73.6, prior 70.5) is the inflation flashpoint. A move above 73 would mark the highest input cost reading since the 2022 energy crisis, signalling that tariff and oil-price pressures are intensifying on the factory floor. USA Retail Sales (Feb) consensus +0.4% MoM (prior -0.2%) — will show whether the American consumer is recovering from February’s decline or pulling back further.
- Thursday 2 April: USA Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 28) consensus ~215k (prior 210k) — claims have held remarkably low despite the oil shock, but any material uptick here would be an early warning of labour market deterioration.
- Friday 3 April: USA Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar) consensus +57k (prior -92k). February’s loss of 92,000 jobs was the worst since December 2020, driven by healthcare strikes and federal government DOGE layoffs. A rebound is expected, but 57k remains well below the pre-tariff monthly average of ~180k. Unemployment Rate (Mar) consensus 4.4% (prior 4.4%).
- Iran conflict context for the week: The war enters its fifth week with no ceasefire in sight. Iran rejected Trump’s 15-point peace plan and countered with five conditions including war reparations and sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz — likely a non-starter. Trump has extended his deadline for Iran to reopen Hormuz to 6 April, pausing threatened strikes on Iran’s power plants. Israel is intensifying strikes on Iran and has expanded its ground invasion of southern Lebanon. Brent crude briefly fell to US$102/bbl on ceasefire hopes before rebounding to US$114 after negotiations stalled and the IRGC formally declared the strait closed. Iran is now attempting to formalise toll fees for “friendly” nations’ vessels passing through Hormuz, whilst blocking adversary-linked ships. Over 1,000 ships and 20,000 seafarers remain stranded. The fertiliser crisis continues to deepen — urea prices are now up ~50% since the war began (from ~US$482 to ~US$720/ton), China has restricted fertiliser exports, and Fitch has raised its 2026 ammonia and urea price expectations by 25%. US farmers entering spring planting season face the worst input cost environment since 2022.
Saward Dawson Wealth Advisors Pty Ltd, a Corporate Authorised Representative of Akambo Pty Ltd t/a Accountants Private Advice
The information presented in this publication is general information only, and is not intended to be financial product advice. It has not been prepared taking into account your investment objectives, financial situation or needs, and should not be used as the basis for making an investment decision. Before making any investment decision you need to consider (with your financial adviser) your particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances.
Some numerical figures in this publication have been subject to rounding adjustments. Akambo Pty Ltd (including any of its directors, officers or employees) will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of any reliance on this information. The market commentary reflect Akambo Pty Ltd’s views and beliefs at the time of preparation, which are subject to change without notice.
