29 September 2025 | Weekly Snapshot
Saward Dawson > Wealth Advisory Insights > Weekly Snapshot > 29 September 2025
Did you know?
There have been 168 interest rate cuts from global central banks over the past 12 months. A historically high number of rate cuts outside of economic emergencies such as Covid in 2020 and the GFC in 2008/09. With economies seemingly functioning fairly well at the moment it could be difficult to see further significant near-term global rate cuts from here, outside of any unforeseen economic emergencies or financial system shocks.
Market Movements
The ASX 200 gained 0.16% last week, snapping a 3-week losing streak although only 3 out of 11 sectors were higher, led by Materials up 5.91% as Gold mining stocks continued to climb and one of the world’s largest copper mines, Grasberg in Indonesia, went offline sending the copper price up 4% boosting local copper and base metal producers. The Energy sector up 1.53% also bounced somewhat after last week’s fall and as the oil price rose.
The Healthcare sector led the declines, down another 2.52% last week and down 6 weeks in a row following some disappointing full year results in August and weakness persisting well into September with the US administration saying late last week it would impose a 100% tariff on imports of branded or patented pharmaceutical products not helping. The rates sensitive REIT sector down 2.47% fell as our monthly inflation indicator for August surged back to an annual 3% rate, a 13-month high, up from 2.8% last month and 2.1% in June, also weighing on the Consumer sectors.
The still rising electricity prices and government rebates rolling off were a significant contributor with the unexpected jump in inflation seeing year end RBA rate cut expectations pared back with markets now pricing in a 50% chance of a November rate cut, down from a 100% chance a month ago. Terminal RBA rate forecasts also shifted in a hawkish direction with just one more rate cut now expected in the current easing cycle.
In the US, major indices reset all-time highs again before retreating with the S&P 500 down 0.31%, and Nasdaq down 0.65% last week, snapping 3-week winning streaks with Fed Chair Powel saying stock prices appear ‘fairly highly valued’. Investors dialling back some US rate cut expectations was observable there also as growth and inflation data remained firm.
August US new home sales jumped 20.5% from the previous month to the highest since early 2022. A welcome development with US housing being a clear weak spot recently with buyers responding to the low prices as home builders slashed prices to try to clear the glut of unsold homes with inventory falling to 7.4 months, from 9 months of supply. Lower mortgage rates as bond yields declined also helped affordability.
The final US Q2 GDP report was unexpectedly revised higher to a strong 3.8% quarterly increase and well ahead of the previous estimate of 3.3%. The weekly initial unemployment claims retreated further than expected and the August PCE inflation report rose for the 5th straight month with annualised core PCE rising to an inline but still high 2.9%.
The flurry of AI developments, deals and corporate actions continued but the Energy sector up 4.67% led the gains as the oil price hit a 7-week high followed by Utilities up 2.82%. Communication Services down 2.74% led the declines on likely profit taking following strong gains followed by Materials down 2.02%.
Portfolio Movements
Alibaba to take on OpenAI’s GPT-4o and Google’s Nano Banana with new multimodal AI model
- Chinese tech and ecommerce giant Alibaba continued to take on AI leaders, announcing new AI models last week, including a multimodal system that rivals leader OpenAI’s GPT-4o and new challenger Google’s popular Nano Banana image editor, further intensifying competition in the space.
- Qwen3-Omni was the highlight release, designed to process a combination of text, audio, image and video inputs and respond with text and audio. Qwen3-Omni is the first native end-to-end multimodal system that “unifies text, images, audio and video in one model.
Freeport declares force majeure at Grasberg – Shares fall – Copper price rises
- Leading global copper producer Freeport McMoRan (FCX) declared force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia last week. A mud rush incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine nearly 2 weeks ago fatally injured 2 miners with another 5 still trapped / missing underground.
- To prioritize the search, mining operations have been temporarily suspended since then and have now declared force majeure. FCX shares traded lower on the disrupted production while the copper price surged on the reduced supply.
- Force majeure is French for “superior force,” a contractual clause that releases a party from fulfilling their obligations due to unforeseen, unavoidable events beyond their reasonable control.
Macquarie to compensate affected Shield investors
- ASIC has commenced proceedings against Macquarie Investment Management Limited (MIML) over the Shield / First Guardian fund collapse that has sent a few shockwaves through the industry recently following admissions that MIML did not act efficiently, honestly, and fairly by failing to place Shield on a watch list for heightened monitoring.
- MIML has offered a court-enforceable undertaking for Macquarie to pay to members 100% of the amounts they invested in Shield, a great outcome for those investors who were facing significant losses. As superannuation trustee, MIML oversaw around $320M in super investments into Shield by around 3,000 of its members between 2022 and 2023. The expense will likely be incurred at MQG’s first half result in November.
The Week Ahead
- Tuesday 30 September: USA Pending Home Sales MoM (Aug) 0.1% (prior -0.4%). Australia RBA Cash Rate Target (Sept) 3.6% (current 3.6%), Building Approvals MoM (Aug) 3.0% (prior -8.2%).
- Wednesday 1 October: USA JOLTS Job Openings (Aug) 7,100k (prior 7,181k), Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Sep) 95.8 (prior 97.4), ADP Employment Change (Sep) 50k (prior 54k).
- Thursday 2 October: USA ISM Manufacturing (Sep_ 49.2 (prior 48.7), Construction Spending MoM (Aug) -0.1% (prior -0.1%), Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 27) 225k (prior 218k). Australia Trade Balance (Auf) $6,250m (prior $7,310m)
- Friday 3 October: USA Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Sept) 50k (prior 22k), Unemployment Rate (Sept) 4.3% (prior 4.3%).
- Saturday 4 October: USA ISM Services (Sep F) 52.0 (prior 52.0)
Saward Dawson Wealth Advisors Pty Ltd, a Corporate Authorised Representative of Akambo Pty Ltd t/a Accountants Private Advice
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Some numerical figures in this publication have been subject to rounding adjustments. Akambo Pty Ltd (including any of its directors, officers or employees) will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of any reliance on this information. The market commentary reflect Akambo Pty Ltd’s views and beliefs at the time of preparation, which are subject to change without notice.
