28 September 2026 | Weekly Snapshot
Saward Dawson > Wealth Advisory Insights > Weekly Snapshot > 28 September 2026
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This morning Northern Star rejected a cash-and-scrip takeover proposal from South Africa’s Gold Fields worth about A$36 billion, calling it highly opportunistic. Northern Star is Australia’s largest gold miner; Newcrest, its only rival for that title, was absorbed by America’s Newmont in 2023.
Bids like this, and the billions raised in new equity by Australian gold companies over the past 12 months, make the same point: in gold, growth is easier to buy than to build. The gold price has more than tripled since 2018, yet quarterly mine supply has moved sideways at roughly 850–1,000 tonnes (chart). Mines deplete, costs have risen with the price, and new discoveries typically take more than a decade to reach production.
A high price rewards producers with ounces already in the ground, which is the exposure our GDX holding gives us. It does not quickly create more of them.
Market Movements
The ASX slipped 0.8% last week, and the damage was concentrated in the parts of the market most exposed to interest rates. Utilities fell 5.1% and telecommunications 2.5%, with property-linked and long-duration growth names under pressure through a broadly negative Thursday session. Consumer staples was the only sector to finish higher.
Xero (held) fell 8.6% to a seven-year low and REA Group (held) 5.5%, neither on company news. Both carry valuations that are sensitive to the discount rate applied to future earnings, and with the Australian 10-year yield at 5.37% and a rate rise all but certain on Tuesday, that sensitivity is being tested.
Unemployment rises, but the hike is still coming
The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in August from 4.5%, its highest level since late 2021 and above expectations for no change. The detail was more mixed than the headline. Employment grew by 39,500, roughly double what economists expected, but all of it was part-time, with full-time jobs falling by 6,300. The rise in unemployment came mostly from more people looking for work, with the participation rate lifting to 67.1%, and the ABS cautioned that a change to its survey method may have affected the August figures.
None of this has shifted the market’s view of Tuesday’s Reserve Bank meeting, where a 25 basis point increase to 4.60% is close to fully priced. A labour market loosening at the edges is what the board would want to see after lifting rates, but it is not yet weak enough to argue against doing more while trimmed mean inflation sits at 3.6%. The more interesting question is November. ANZ expects a second increase before year end, and Wednesday’s inflation figures, released the day after the meeting, will go a long way to settling that.
The Australian dollar lost 1.6% amidst this economic backdrop.
The bond market set the tone. The US 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.225% on Friday, its highest level since 2007, and the 30-year reached 5.50%, a level last seen in 2004. Mid-week the five-year yield crossed 5% for the first time since 2007. Investors are demanding more to hold long-dated government debt in a world of energy-driven inflation, heavy AI investment and a Federal Reserve that has only just started raising rates.
What stood out was how little equities cared. The S&P 500 finished Friday within 0.7% of last month’s record high, helped by a pullback in oil on Friday and by earnings that keep running ahead of forecasts (both below). Meta (held) supplied much of the energy, rising 12.9% on the success of its new AI agent, which we cover in Portfolio Insights. President Trump’s meetings with Xi Jinping ended on Friday without a trade breakthrough.
The US-Iran conflict and the oil price. Oil whipsawed on headlines from the United Nations General Assembly, where US and Iranian negotiators held talks on the sidelines. Brent fell for five straight sessions into Tuesday on reports of a phased deal, jumped above US$108 a barrel intraday on Thursday after Houthi missiles were fired at the Saudi export terminal at Yanbu, then settled at US$104 on Friday after Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US lifted its naval blockade, released frozen assets and waived oil sanctions.
On Saturday President Trump rejected that proposal as unacceptable. Qatari mediators are still shuttling between the two sides, and US officials say tanker flows under naval escort have picked up, with about 60 million barrels transiting the strait over three days. What a mess!
US earnings consensus. FactSet’s Earnings Insight of 25 September shows analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to grow 29.1% in the third quarter, up from 26.7% at the end of June. That direction is unusual. Over the past five years estimates have typically been cut by 2.2% during a quarter; this quarter they have been raised by 1.3%, and 62% of companies that have issued guidance have guided above expectations, against a five-year average of 41%.
The growth is concentrated. Energy is expected to more than double its earnings on the back of oil, and semiconductors account for most of the technology sector’s 63.5% growth; take them out and IT earnings growth falls to 24%. More importantly for the bond market debate, the forward price-to-earnings ratio (the price paid for each dollar of expected earnings over the next year) has fallen to 19.2 from 20.4 at the end of June. Prices are up 2.7% since then, but forward earnings estimates have risen 8.9%. That is how the market has absorbed 5% Treasury yields: it has become cheaper even as it nears its highs.
Portfolio Insights
Meta Platforms (META, held) rose 12.9%, including an 11% jump on Monday, its best day since April 2025, and the stock is on track for its best month since 2013. The catalyst was Muse, the personal AI agent Meta launched on 8 September. Unlike a chatbot, Muse carries out tasks for the user: browsing, managing email and calendars, booking travel and completing purchases through partners such as Stripe and Instacart. It has climbed to the top of the app store charts, overtaking ChatGPT.
The rally matters because it offers a provisional answer to the question that has weighed on Meta all year: what the company gets for capital expenditure guided at up to US$145 billion in 2026. Second-quarter free cash flow fell to US$784 million from US$8.6 billion a year earlier. Muse gives analysts a route to subscription and transaction revenue beyond advertising, and the October result is the first chance for Meta to put numbers to it.
BHP suspends Escondida copper mine after fatal accident
Operations at the world’s largest copper mine, BHP’s Escondida in Chile, were suspended overnight, adding to copper supply concerns after a worker was killed while carrying out maintenance work. BHP gave no timeline for a restart, with Chilean inspectors typically needed to verify conditions are safe before activities resume.
BHP operates the mine, while Rio Tinto holds a 30% stake and JECO 12.5%. BHP had estimated the site would produce up to 1.28 million tonnes of copper this year.
Copper-exposures (including Freeport, BHP) supported by new record copper price
The Copper price hit a new high overnight with Comex December futures reaching around US$6.90 a pound on falling inventories and pre-holiday physical buying in China.
The Yangshan import premium, a gauge of Chinese import demand, reached its highest since 2022. And Shanghai Metals Market noted that imported copper arriving in China has largely gone straight to fabricators rather than warehouses.
Global Copper mine production fell 1.1% year on year in the first half of 2026, with mine disruptions removing an estimated 600,000 tonnes from expected annual output. The US Commerce Department has proposed copper duties of 15% from January 2027 and 30% from 2028, and this has seen Comex warehouse stockpiles grow, but the decision has not been finalized by Trump yet.
The Week Ahead
- Tuesday 29 September — RBA cash rate decision. Consensus is a 25 basis point increase to 4.60% (prior 4.35%), with markets pricing about a 95% probability.
- Wednesday 30 September — Australia monthly CPI (August) and US PCE inflation (August). Australian inflation (trimmed mean, prior 3.6%) expected to hold at 3.6%. Released the day after the RBA meets, it is the last major domestic inflation read before November, and a trimmed mean that refuses to fall would make a second increase the base case. In the US, core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is expected to rise 3.6% after an annual rate of 3.3% in July..
- Thursday 1 October — Accenture (held) fourth-quarter FY26 result, before the US open (10pm AEST). The only holding reporting this week. Consensus revenue US$18.04 billion (prior year US$17.6 billion, +2.5%) and earnings per share US$3.18 (prior year US$3.03, +5%), against management guidance of 1–5% local-currency revenue growth for the quarter. New bookings are the number to watch, since last quarter’s result was let down by forward business rather than current revenue, and FY27 guidance matters more than the quarter itself. The shares fell 2.9% last week after a Wells Fargo downgrade earlier this month.
- Friday 2 October — US non-farm payrolls (September). Consensus 100,000 (prior 162,000), unemployment rate 4.1% (prior 4.1%), average hourly earnings +0.3% for the month (prior +0.3%). The Fed raised rates on 16 September and its projections point to more. A print near consensus keeps that path intact; a strong one alongside firm PCE on Wednesday would add to the pressure on long-dated yields that equities have so far absorbed.
Saward Dawson Wealth Advisors Pty Ltd, a Corporate Authorised Representative of Akambo Pty Ltd t/a Accountants Private Advice
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