25 May 2026 | Weekly Snapshot

Saward Dawson > Wealth Advisory Insights > Weekly Snapshot > 25 May 2026

Did you know?

82% of US companies now use generative AI in at least one business function — up from 20% just three years ago. It is the fastest enterprise technology adoption ever recorded. Australia is tracking the same curve with an 18-month lag, currently at an estimated 65%. Among Australia’s smaller enterprises, adoption remains below 40% — suggesting the productivity gains already flowing through US earnings have yet to materialise here. That gap represents both an opportunity for early adopters and an important signal for where durable investment returns sit in the AI theme.

Market Movements

The ASX remains underwater for the year at -1.6% while the S&P 500 extends its lead at +9% — a full 10.6 percentage point gap that reflects where the AI infrastructure dollars are flowing. The Nasdaq added another 1% this week and is now +13.4% CYTD, with the AI server theme front and centre: Dell surged 24% for the week (+135% CYTD) and Super Micro followed at +15%, both riding the hyperscaler capex wave.

At the sector level, ASX Energy remains the standout at +27.7% CYTD after another 6% weekly gain, buoyed by oil holding above $103 (+70% CYTD) despite easing 5% this week on softening Iran rhetoric. Resources added 1.3% and are +17.5% for the year.

In the single names, IGO rallied 10.2% on improved sentiment in contrast to recent production downgrades, while Domino’s bounced 9.5% after a bruising year (-18.9% CYTD). REA Group fell 7.6%, reflecting softening housing market momentum and continued negative sentiment in the software space. Walmart dropped 9.8% after flagging margin pressure from tariff pass-through costs.

Commodities were mixed. Gold eased 0.8% to $4,521 after its recent surge but remains comfortably above $4,500. Natural gas was the notable mover, down 18% for the week. Iron ore and copper held steady. Uranium drifted 0.5% lower to $84.70.

Our April unemployment rate unexpectedly rose 0.2 percentage points to 4.5%, the highest since late 2021, with employment falling 18,600 against expectations of a small gain.

The US 30-year Treasury yield briefly topped 5.19%, its highest level in nearly 19 years, while the 10-year note yield rose to 4.687%, as traders start to rule out near term Fed rate cuts this year with some now pricing hikes. Yields have surged amid an increasingly inflationary outlook with oil and fuel prices remaining elevated due to the conflict and the Strait remaining largely closed, now well into the 3rd month

China’s April activity data missed expectations with retail sales easing sharply to 0.2% year-on-year, the weakest growth since late 2022, while industrial production slowed to 4.1%, its slowest since mid-2023. The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.3 in May 2026, up from 54.5 in April and well ahead of the 53.8 expected and the strongest manufacturing expansion since May 2022. The University of Michigan’s US Consumer Sentiment Index plunged to a new record low of 44.8 in May, revised sharply lower from the initial 48.2 that was also a record low with 57% of consumers citing high prices eroding their personal finances, much of which due to the US / Israel war on Iran.

In the Strait of Hormuz it looks like there’s been a trickle of tankers making it through, reportedly after the Trump Xi summit last week with Iran’s IRGC Navy saying 26 vessels, including oil tankers, container ships and other commercial vessels, transited in the prior 24 hours.

Portfolio Movements

Nvidia delivers another record quarter after market

Nvidia reported Q1 fiscal 2027 results with revenue of $81.6 billion, up 20% sequentially and 85% on the prior year, well ahead of the $79.2 billion expected, with non-GAAP EPS of $1.87 versus the $1.78 forecast.
Data Centre revenue doubled year on year to $75.2 billion, accounting for 92% of total sales, with CFO Colette Kress flagging the new Vera CPU as a “$200 billion” opportunity and forecasting $20 billion in CPU revenue this year alone.
The result has positive implications for held AI infrastructure names including Broadcom, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet and Eaton, all of which are key participants in or beneficiaries of the hyperscaler capex cycle that is now tracking at roughly $725 billion for 2026.

James Hardie beats Q4 EBITDA guidance and unveils FY27 guide implying mid-teens EBITDA growth

JHX reported Q4 FY26 with net sales of $1.404 billion (+45% year on year, organic net sales -1%), with Q4 Adjusted EBITDA of $380.9 million ahead of the company’s guidance range and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.30 versus consensus of $0.29.
For the full year, James Hardie delivered net sales of $4.836 billion (+25% year on year), Adjusted EBITDA of $1.266 billion at a 26.2% margin and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.09, beating the top end of the prior $1.232-1.263 billion FY26 EBITDA guidance range; segment dynamics showed Siding & Trim benefiting from the AZEK contribution but with organic volume declines, while DR&A delivered price/mix-led growth on roughly flat volumes.
Management guided FY27 Adjusted EBITDA to $1.45-1.50 billion and reaffirmed at least $500 million of free cash flow, more than $200 million above FY26 with cost synergies are running ahead of schedule.

Worley launches new A$300 million buyback at Investor Day, targets double-digit EBITA growth to FY30

Worley (WOR), held in the Australian shares portfolio, used its 2026 Investor Day last week to launch a new on-market buyback of up to A$300 million following the completion of a A$500 million program, alongside A$70 million planned investment in digital and AI over the next two years, with backlog increased to A$16.9 billion as at March 2026.
The medium-term strategy targets double-digit underlying EBITA growth through FY30, an FY26 EBITA margin of 9.0 to 9.5% (excluding procurement) and A$95 million in annualised cost savings already actioned.
Worley still expects FY26 underlying EBITA within its previous guidance range of A$800 million to A$850 million but now anticipates finishing at the lower end given Middle East-related project timing delays.

The Week Ahead

Tuesday 27 May: US Consumer Confidence (May, Conference Board) — consensus ~87.0. Prior (Apr 2026): 86.0. Prior year (May 2025): 96.4. The deterioration from last year’s mid-90s readings to the low-80s reflects cumulative tariff and Iran-conflict uncertainty. Any print below 85 would be the lowest since late 2022. US New Home Sales (Apr) — consensus ~680K annualised. Prior: 670K. Prior year (Apr 2025): 683K.
Wednesday 28 May: Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Apr, ABS) — consensus ~2.9% YoY. Prior (Mar 2026): 2.4%. Prior year (Apr 2025): 3.6%. This is a critical read for the RBA after the recent hike to 4.10%. US PCE Price Index (Apr) — consensus ~3.4% YoY. Prior: 3.1%. Prior year (Apr 2025): 2.7%. This is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and the most important US release of the week. The PPI shock two weeks ago (6.0% vs 4.8% expected) suggests upside risk. US Initial Jobless Claims — consensus ~230K. Prior: 227K. Prior year: 223K.
Friday 30 May: Australia Producer Price Indexes (Q1, ABS) — consensus ~3.8% YoY. Prior: 3.7%. Prior year: 4.3%. Input cost pressures remain elevated from energy and imported goods. No major US releases.

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Saward Dawson Wealth Advisors Pty Ltd, a Corporate Authorised Representative of Akambo Pty Ltd t/a Accountants Private Advice

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