25 August 2025 | Weekly Snapshot
Saward Dawson > Wealth Advisory Insights > Weekly Snapshot > 25 August 2025
Did you know?
As at 2025 and according to the Worldometer, the United States population stood 347 million, which represents a 0.5% growth rate on 2024. Did you know that this growth rate has been in decline? Driving this decline has been a reversal on immigration policy. In 2024 for example, there were 2.8 million (net) immigrants into the USA. Projections for 2025 range from +1 million net immigrants to negative. It has interesting implications for investors including the impacts the supply of labour, wage inflation and ultimately, interest rates.
Market Movements
The Australian market was unchanged last week. The healthcare sector was down 11% led by CSL (down 20%). Consumer discretionary stocks were the strongest (up 3.4%). Stockland (up 12%) and Brambles (up 12%) were among the strongest stocks on the back of strong profit results.
The US market was up 0.3% with energy stocks leading the way (up 3.1%). Info tech was the weakest sector (down 1.5%) with the high-flying AI company Palantir (down 9%) leading the downside. Jerome Powell (United States Federal Reserve Chair) made some comments at the Jackson Hole meeting suggesting that they are more likely to cut interest rates in the short term, citing the weakening in the employment market. Tariff effects on consumer prices are now clearly visible but Powell said he was taking the view that tariff effects will be short-lived. September rate cut probability jumped back above 90% following the speech, from 70% beforehand. Markets loved this and rallied strongly on Friday, effectively neutralising what was otherwise a down week.
On economics, manufacturing showed a real gallop in both the U.S. and European, with the PMIs stronger at 55.4 and 51.1 respectively. One hair in the ointment was found amongst inflation readings, where both US services prices paid (ISM Service price index, black line below) and US producer prices showed an unwelcome reversal higher, no doubt in line with the tariff activity in the backdrop. As much was confirmed by the Walmart CEO last week during earnings season, who said “Our cost increase week as we replenish inventory at post-tariff price levels….expect tariff-related cost to increase into Q3 and Q4”.
Portfolio Movements
Sonic Health reports FY results – Shares fall
- Sonic Healthcare reported an improvement in earnings but was below market expectations in what has been overall, a rough few years in a post COVID-19 world
- Adjusted EBITDA of $1.73B up 8% was in line with their guidance $1.70-1.75B but below the $1.76B analysts were looking for.
- The outlook was positive with earnings expected to recover further and the company expecting stronger earnings growth in FY26 of around 19%, but the guidance for adjusted EBITDA $1.87-1.95B slightly below the $1.99B expected.
- Sonic is a global leader in medical services with 85% of earnings coming from Laboratory services.
James Hardie Q1 earnings and FY26 guidance disappoints, shares lower by 33%
- James Hardie provided a Q1 update and provided FY26 guidance that disappointed the market but was largely in line with what the company had outlined in May.
- FY26 guidance for adjusted EBITDA of $1.05-1.15B was in line with the “low single digit” growth guidance from May, but a big miss on the $1.33B expected by analysts. But FY Free Cash Flow guidance of at least $200M was well down on the “at least $500M” guidance provided in May.
- The recent acquisition of Azek seemed to be going ok. The weakness seemed to be coming from JHX’s key home renovation and repair market, which is being impeded by record high interest and mortgage rates.
- James Hardie is a leading provider of building solutions. Over 80% of earnings come from North American Fiber cement.
CSL reports FY results – Shares fall 20%
- CSL reported FY results with profits of $3.22B ahead of the $3.17B expected. FY revenue of $15.56B was below the $15.70B expected and the FY 26 guidance was also a bit light on. The company announced a raft of jobs cuts to reduce costs.
- CSL said they would spin off its flu-vaccine unit, Seqirus, as a separate entity on the ASX by June next year
- One-off restructuring costs are expected to be approximately $700-$770 million (pre-tax) all to be recognised in FY26. But the initiatives are expected to drive annualised cost savings of $500-550 million over the next three years.
- CSL will also recommence a share buyback program, starting with $750m this FY, and is expected to progressively increase over the medium-term.
The Week Ahead
- Tuesday 26 August: USA New Home Sales (Jul) 630k (prior 627k), Durable Goods Orders (Ju; P) -3.9% (prior -9.4%).
- Wednesday 27 August: USA Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Aug) 96.5 (prior 97.2). Australia CPI YoY (Jul) 2.3% (prior 1.9%).
- Thursday 28 August: USA GDP Annualised QoQ (2Q) 3.1% (prior 3.0%), Personal Consumption (2Q) 1.6% (prior 1.4%), Initial Jobless Claims (Aug 23) 230k (prior 235k).
- Friday 29 August: USA Pending Home Sale MoM (Jul) -0.2% (prior -0.8%), Personal Income (Jul) 0.4% (prior 0.%), Personal Spending (Jul) 0.5% (prior 0.3%), Wholesale Inventories MoM (Jul P) 0.1% (prior 0.1%), MNI Chicago PMI (Aug) 46.0 (prior 47.1).
Saward Dawson Wealth Advisors Pty Ltd, a Corporate Authorised Representative of Akambo Pty Ltd t/a Accountants Private Advice
The information presented in this publication is general information only, and is not intended to be financial product advice. It has not been prepared taking into account your investment objectives, financial situation or needs, and should not be used as the basis for making an investment decision. Before making any investment decision you need to consider (with your financial adviser) your particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances.
Some numerical figures in this publication have been subject to rounding adjustments. Akambo Pty Ltd (including any of its directors, officers or employees) will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of any reliance on this information. The market commentary reflect Akambo Pty Ltd’s views and beliefs at the time of preparation, which are subject to change without notice.
