Saward Dawson > Wealth Advisory Insights > Weekly Snapshot > 24 August 2026
Did you know?
Did You Know that as per last week’s earnings result, BHP profits from iron ore were exceed by copper?
BHP came late to the Pilbara and cheaply. It took a 30% stake in the Mt Newman joint venture in the 1960s, alongside Mt Goldsworthy, and only lifted that to 85% in 1985 when it bought out AMAX and Pilbara Iron — by which time Mt Whaleback alone was a 1.1-billion-tonne orebody. Four decades on, that business shipped a record 291 million tonnes in FY26 and earned more than US$14 billion at a 61% margin as the world’s lowest-cost major producer for the seventh year running. And yet the result handed down on 18 August marked the first time in BHP’s history that copper made more money than iron ore: US$18 billion of EBITDA at a 70% margin, 54% of the group, achieved while producing 3% less copper. The prices tell the same story — iron ore is down 11.2% this calendar year at US$95.16 a tonne, copper up 14.3% at US$14,291.
Market Movements
The ASX All Ordinaries held up better than most, down just 0.5% to 9,270 in a week that was really two markets. Healthcare surged 9.2% on the back of a single stock, and Resources climbed 5.6% with Energy up 3.5%. Against that, Consumer Discretionary fell 6.6%, Financials 5.1% and Property 4.3%. Small caps took the brunt of it, with the Small Ordinaries down 5.7% — reporting season is separating businesses that are delivering from those that are asking investors for patience, and it is doing it violently.
Overseas was weaker across the board. The S&P 500 fell 1.4% to 7,674 and the Nasdaq 2.1%, with Information Technology the worst global sector at 3.3% and Industrials down 2.8%. Japan’s market fell 3.4%, Europe’s STOXX 50 1.2%, Germany’s DAX 1.2% and China’s Shenzhen A shares 2.0%. The UK FTSE 100 was the one bright spot, up 0.7%. Globally, Materials led at +4.5% and Energy at +2.8% — the same commodity rotation we saw locally.
The reason sits in the Middle East. With the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed and Washington promising what the Treasury Secretary called the toughest sanctions in history against Iran, crude rose 6.6% to US$94.39 a barrel and gold jumped 5.6% to US$4,624.10 an ounce. Copper eased 1.8% to US$14,291 a tonne and iron ore was unchanged at US$95.16. Uranium added 1.5% to US$88.80 a pound and natural gas 1.5% to US$2.77.
Bond markets sold off modestly on that inflation impulse. The RBA held at 4.10%, but the Australian 10-year yield rose to 5.03% and the 2-year to 4.59%, with 10-year breakeven inflation — the market’s implied inflation forecast — at 2.15%. In the US, the Fed funds rate held at 3.60% while the 2-year moved to 4.23% and the 10-year to 4.73%. The Australian dollar gained 1.2% to US$0.72.
Moderna (MRNA) shares rose 129.2% over the week, nearly tripling in a single session on 19 August, after Moderna and Merck announced that their individualised mRNA cancer therapy, used with Merck’s Keytruda, met both its primary endpoint and a key secondary endpoint in a Phase 3 melanoma trial. It is the first mRNA cancer vaccine to succeed at Phase 3.
The stock moved on optionality rather than melanoma alone: the same therapy is in multiple ongoing Phase 2 and 3 trials across other cancers, and the market is pricing the read-across. It is worth noting the companies have not yet released hazard ratios or effect sizes — the detailed readout at an upcoming medical meeting is the next real test.
Portfolio Insights
CSL — the best day in twenty years, on a record loss
CSL reported a statutory net loss of US$2.6 billion for FY26 and the shares rose 23.3% over the week, the single largest contributor to the ASX’s 9.2% healthcare gain.
The loss was not an operating problem. It came from US$7.1 billion of pre-tax impairments — largely CSL Vifor intangibles and under-utilised property and equipment — plus US$799 million of restructuring costs. None of it involved cash leaving the business.
What the market actually bought was the absence of another downgrade. Underlying NPATA of US$3.1 billion came in ahead of the guidance CSL cut back in May, revenue was US$15.8 billion, and management guided FY27 to around 5% underlying profit growth alongside a A$1.1 billion buyback.
We would caution that this is a re-rating on relief rather than on delivered growth.
BHP – record copper result
The shares added roughly A$19 billion of market value across results week.
Two things temper the enthusiasm: FY27 copper guidance steps down to 1.65–1.80 million tonnes as Escondida’s head grade falls to around 0.70% from 0.90%, and the result carried a US$2.3 billion non-cash impairment on the Jansen potash project alongside a 41% cost increase on its second stage.
The dividend was the highest in four years at US$1.72 a share.
Aurizon fell 12.3%
Underlying EBITDA up 9% to $1,724 million, underlying profit up 24% to $433 million, earnings per share up 29% on a completed $250 million buyback, and the full-year dividend up 46% to 23 cents.
The entire move was about FY27 guidance, which points to underlying EBITDA of $1,725–1,775 million — essentially flat at the low end. Coal earnings are expected to decline. Set against that, the Bulk division lifted EBITDA 38%, containerised freight volumes grew 25% with a path to break-even in FY27, and more than 60 million tonnes of coal volume has been recontracted into the 2030s.
This is a business generating cash and returning it while the market prices a plateau.
The Week Ahead
Monday 24 August
Coles FY26 results before open (consensus NPAT ~$1,220m). Fortescue FY26 (consensus NPAT ~US$3,868m), the major iron ore read after BHP. South32 (held) FY26. Washington expected to detail its new measures against Iran’s economy.
Tuesday 25 August
Woolworths (held) FY26 before open (consensus NPAT ~$1,570m); volume-versus-price mix is the number that matters. US Conference Board consumer confidence (Aug).
Wednesday 26 August
Wesfarmers (held) FY26 before open (consensus NPAT ~$2,852m, EPS 251.4c, DPS 210.9c) — Kmart and Bunnings margins after JB Hi-Fi’s July warning. Australia monthly CPI indicator (July) at 11.30am (prior 3.8% headline, trimmed mean 3.6%); with the RBA having hiked three times this year to 4.10%, a re-acceleration would be unwelcome.
US Q2 GDP second estimate, durable goods orders (July), personal income and spending, and core PCE MoM (July) consensus 0.2%, leaving the annual rate at 3.3%.
Nvidia (held) reports Q2 FY27 after the US close — consensus revenue ~US$91.9bn (prior year US$46.7bn) and EPS ~US$2.08 (prior year US$1.05), against company guidance of US$91bn ±2%.
Thursday 27 August
Jackson Hole symposium opens.
US initial jobless claims (22 Aug).
NEXTDC reports after close
Friday 28 August
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers the Jackson Hole keynote, the most likely source of a policy signal into year-end.
Tokyo CPI (Aug) and Japanese unemployment (July). German unemployment (Aug).
Saward Dawson Wealth Advisors Pty Ltd, a Corporate Authorised Representative of Akambo Pty Ltd t/a Accountants Private Advice
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