23 March 2026 | Weekly Snapshot

Saward Dawson > Wealth Advisory Insights > Weekly Snapshot > 23 March 2026

Did you know?

Central Banks now hold a higher value of gold relative to US treasuries. In times of financial stress, central banks will provide liquidity to markets. To achieve this they might do a combination of selling the ‘safe haven’ assets (from their own balance sheet) and buying distressed assets to stabilise markets. With the backdrop of sky-rocketing energy prices, this could offer some explanation as to why gold, being such a large part of central bank assets, is being sold to offer financial relief in other distressed areas.

Market Movements

The Australian equity market fell 2.4% last week with resources (down 3.3%), consumer discretion (down 3.5%) and tech (down 3.5%) leading the way. No doubt, consumers are feeling cautious seeing oil prices spiking. No surprise in seeing that Woodside and Santos were last week’s top performers (up 10% and 6% respectively) alongside an oil price, which rose 12%. Gold was down 8.5%, serving as a liquidity bucket for those holders needing to pay their increasing energy costs. Higher energy prices is also having a big impact on resource companies who are major consumers of diesel, including PLS group (Australia’s largest lithium producer down 13.5%) and Northern Star (Large Australian gold producer, down 14.9%). Smaller mining operations are reportedly telling staff to stay at home citing lack of available diesel to continue with operations.

The RBA hiked interest rates to 4.1% as expected. The decision was split 5-4, a narrow margin, but Governor Bullock noted the split was about timing not direction, with all nine board members agreeing a hike was needed. Australia’s unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3% from 4.1%, the highest since November with the participation rate rising to 66.9% from 66.7%.

Overseas, US stocks were down 1.9%, China stocks were down 4.2% and Germany down 4.6%. India and Japan were basically flat last week. Overall, last week’s equity performance was neatly tied alongside the number of days in strategic oil reserves, where Japan has over 200 days in stock. Australia is low on the list with approx. 27 days.

In terms of sectors and stocks, similar story in the USA than here in Australia. Energy up, Gold down, but not even defensive sectors like health (down 3%) and utilities (down 4.8%) offered hiding space.

Portfolio update in context of Iran conflict:

Our reminder to our investors is that this conflict will be temporary and that markets will once again re-focus their attention from the short term pain to the long term prospects. The re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz is likely the key barometer, be it in allied control or not, where oil prices are likely to peak and markets likely to bottom.
If the market continues to move lower, this will offer great opportunity to take a longer-term view and deploy some of our recently increased cash pile to where investors are either panic-selling or extrapolating current conditions too far into the future.

We came into this conflict with overweights in oil, which is giving us some relative protection compared to our benchmarks. If high oil prices are extrapolated too far into the future, oil stocks could become great reduction opportunities to re-allocate where prices are lower. We have an overweight in gold and gold stocks. Gold has been sold amidst broader market chaos. We think this reflects the shorter-term reflexes of the Iran situation rather than a change in our overall gold thesis. We remain constructive on the outlook for this position expecting that both inflation and a weaker US$ are ultimately more likely outcomes from this Iran conflict.

Portfolio Movements

Alibaba Q3 misses – Cloud AI a bright spot

Alibaba reported fiscal Q3 results with revenue of RMB284.8 billion (US$40.7 billion), up 2% year on year but below the RMB289.3 billion expected, with net income falling 66% to US$2.33 billion as heavy spending on quick commerce subsidies and AI infrastructure hit margins.
The Cloud Intelligence division was the standout, with revenue growth accelerating to 36% and AI-related product revenue posting triple-digit year-on-year growth for the tenth consecutive quarter. CEO Eddie Wu also announced a US$100 billion cloud and AI revenue target over the next five years.
Management noted that physical goods GMV and revenue trends have “significantly recovered” heading into the March quarter.

Tencent reports strong FY and Q4 results

Tencent reported full year 2025 revenue of RMB751.8 billion, up 14% year on year, with gross profit up 21% to RMB422.6 billion. Non-IFRS net profit rose 18% to RMB267 billion and non-IFRS operating margin expanded to 37% from 36%. Q4 non-IFRS net profit of RMB66.7 billion was up 18% year on year with the operating margin expanding to 36% from 34%.
Gaming was a key driver with domestic games revenue up 18% to RMB164.2 billion, led by Delta Force, VALORANT, and evergreen titles Honour of Kings and Peacekeeper Elite. International games revenue surged 33% to RMB77.4 billion, driven by Supercell titles and PUBG Mobile. Marketing services revenue rose 19% to RMB145 billion, benefiting from AI-driven ad targeting improvements.

Uber expands Nvidia partnership to launch robotaxi fleet across 28 cities by 2028

Uber announced a major expansion of its autonomous vehicle partnership with Nvidia at the GTC conference, planning to deploy a fleet of 100,000 Level 4 robotaxis powered by Nvidia’s full-stack DRIVE AV software across 28 cities on four continents by 2028, starting with Los Angeles and San Francisco in the first half of 2027.
The fleet will be built using the Nvidia DRIVE Hyperion platform and the new Alpamayo AI model for autonomous vehicles, with Uber securing commitments from several automakers including BYD, Geely, Nissan, and Stellantis to manufacture robotaxi-ready vehicles pre-integrated with Nvidia’s hardware. Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said the partnership is “laying the foundation for an increasingly multi-player AV world.”

The Week Ahead

Monday 23 March: S&P Global Flash PMIs (Mar) — the first hard economic readings capturing the impact of the Iran war on business activity. Watch for a sharp divergence between elevated input cost indices and weakening output — the classic stagflationary signal. Manufacturing PMI consensus ~50.5 (prior 52.7), Services PMI consensus ~51.0 (prior 54.3).
Tuesday 24 March: USA New Home Sales (Feb) consensus 680k (prior 657k). China Flash Manufacturing PMI (Mar) will signal how the world’s largest manufacturer is absorbing the energy shock and Hormuz disruption.
Wednesday 25 March: USA Durable Goods Orders (Jan) consensus +2.0% MoM (prior -1.4%) — a key read on business investment appetite amid geopolitical uncertainty. USA Import Prices (Feb) consensus +0.5% MoM (prior +0.3%) — watch for early pass-through of higher oil and shipping costs. EIA Crude Oil Inventories — closely watched given Hormuz disruption and IEA strategic reserve drawdowns of 400 million barrels.
Thursday 26 March: USA Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 21) consensus ~210k (prior 205k) — any uptick could signal early labour market softening from the oil shock.
Friday 27 March: USA Core PCE Price Index (Feb) consensus +0.3% MoM, ~2.7% YoY (prior +0.3% MoM, 2.6% YoY) — the Fed’s preferred inflation measure and the single most important data point this week. USA Personal Spending (Feb) consensus +0.5% (prior -0.2%).
Iran conflict context for the week: The US-Israeli war on Iran enters its fourth week with no ceasefire in sight. The war escalated sharply last week — Israel struck Iran’s South Pars gas field (the world’s largest), Iran struck a major Qatar gas facility, which has damaged 6% of global LNG supply. Israel launched a ground invasion of southern Lebanon. Oil remains above $100/bbl. Regional oil exports are down ~60% from pre-war levels. NATO allies have rejected Trump’s call to send warships to reopen Hormuz. The fertiliser crisis is deepening — urea up 35% since the war began, US farmers unable to secure supply ahead of spring planting, and China has halted most fertiliser exports.

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Saward Dawson Wealth Advisors Pty Ltd, a Corporate Authorised Representative of Akambo Pty Ltd t/a Accountants Private Advice

The information presented in this publication is general information only, and is not intended to be financial product advice. It has not been prepared taking into account your investment objectives, financial situation or needs, and should not be used as the basis for making an investment decision. Before making any investment decision you need to consider (with your financial adviser) your particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances.

Some numerical figures in this publication have been subject to rounding adjustments. Akambo Pty Ltd (including any of its directors, officers or employees) will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of any reliance on this information. The market commentary reflect Akambo Pty Ltd’s views and beliefs at the time of preparation, which are subject to change without notice.