22 September 2025 | Weekly Snapshot
Saward Dawson > Wealth Advisory Insights > Weekly Snapshot > 22 September 2025
Did you know?
Around half of Australia’s estimated $200 billion private credit market is tied up in real estate. Private credit has boomed in recent years, filling the gap left as banks pulled back from riskier lending. Much of this growth has gone into property construction and development, helping fuel double-digit returns for investors during the upswing. According to consultants Alvarez & Marsal, private credit lending now accounts for about 14% of all corporate loans. While the sector has delivered strong growth, regulators warn that its heavy concentration in higher-risk property assets could pose systemic risks—particularly for self-managed super funds and less experienced investors—if the property cycle turns. Why it matters: private credit has rapidly become a core part of corporate funding markets. Its scale, speed of growth, and exposure to real estate mean both opportunities and vulnerabilities for investors.
Market Movements
The ASX 200 declined 1.03% last week, the 3rd down week in a row with our market continuing to ease back in September following the mixed full year reporting season and all-time highs in August that had seen our market up 5 months in a row. The Info Tech sector up 1.55% led the weekly gains on positive offshore Tech leads while our Energy sector down 4.06% led the declines as the XRG Consortium abandoned their $36 billion takeover offer for local oil and gas major, Santos.
Data in our region was a bit soft with the China August activity metrics weaker than expected with retail sales, employment, house prices, property, and fixed asset investment all missing estimates. Industrial production growth was the lowest in 12 months as manufacturing cooled with tariff impacts a likely contributor.
Local employment data showed Aussie jobs declined by 5.4K in August, a decent miss on the 21K increase expected although the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% as the participation rate fell. The RBA is still expected to leave the cash rate unchanged at the September meeting later this month, before cutting again at the November meeting.
In the US, major indices reset all-time highs again with the S&P 500 up 1.22% and Nasdaq up 2.21% last week with both up 3 weeks in a row, buoyed by the resumption of Fed easing and ongoing AI momentum and corporate activity in that space. Big Tech led the gains with Alphabet (Google) becoming the third firm to hit a $3T market cap on optimism around their Gemini AI app surpassing Chat GPT as the most downloaded free app, boosted by interest in its Nano Banana AI image editor. Apple was up 4.9% for the week on reports on stronger than expected iPhone 17 demand.
The FOMC meeting concluded with a 25-basis point rate cut to 4.00-4.25% as expected with Fed Chair Powell describing the decision as “a risk-management cut” largely based on the softening employment outlook , despite the persistent inflation, noting the recent pace of job creation appears to be running below the break-even rate needed to hold the unemployment rate steady.
The quarterly summary of economic projections were also updated showing another 2 rate cuts expected by year’s end, and one cut in 2026. US retail sales rose a more than expected 0.6% for the month of August with non-store (online) retailers surging 2%, and taking annual retail sales growth to 5%, the highest since April. The weekly US initial unemployment claims sank by 33,000 to 231,000 reversing all the previous week’s surge to a 4 year high. The September NAHB Housing Market Index was unchanged at 32, matching the lowest level since December 2022 with US housing data the clear weak spot as August housing starts tumbled 8.5% for the month.
Portfolio Movements
Alibaba lands a major customer for its AI chips
- Leading Chinese tech and ecommerce giant Alibaba shares rose last week after a Chinese state media report noted they had secured a major customer for its artificial intelligence chips.
- Alibaba’s computing power will apparently be used by China Unicom, the country’s second-largest telecommunications company, as part of a big new data centre project in China that will also include chips from other domestic firms.
- There were also reports that China’s internet regulator, the Cyberspace Administration of China, has told companies to stop buying certain Nvidia AI chips with Nvidia shares slightly lower last week.
Santos takeover proposal pulled
- The XRG Consortium’s $36 billion takeover proposal for leading oil and gas producer Santos got pulled last week as the extended deadline for the deal to be signed neared.
- The proposal to acquire the company for US$5.761 (or AUD $8.63 at current exchange rates) cash per share was made 3 months ago. STO shares rallied on the initial proposal but never got near the offer price due to the non-binding, indicative nature of the bid and the significant regulatory hurdles.
- The XRG Consortium commented “following a comprehensive evaluation and taking into account all commercial factors and the terms of the scheme implementation agreement required by the Santos board, the consortium has determined that it will not be proceeding with the proposed transaction”. STO cash flows, earnings and dividends are set to surge as a number of key projects come online over the next 12 months.
Apple exploring foldable iPhone
- According to reports Apple has been in discussions with suppliers in Taiwan about potentially building a test production hub in the country for its rumoured upcoming foldable iPhone.
- Multiple sources have now confirmed that Apple is planning to release its first foldable iPhone in 2026, with the device coming as part of the iPhone 18 lineup.
- The original iPhone was released in 2007 and while it has had many feature upgrades since then it is largely the same construction
The Week Ahead
- Tuesday 23 September: USA Current Account Balance (2Q) -$268.0b (prior -$450.2b), S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Sep P) 51.9 (prior 53.0), S&P Global Services PMI (Sep P) 53.9 (prior 54.5). United Kingdom S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI (Sep P) 47.1 (prior 47), S&P Global UK Services PMI (Sep P) 53.5 (prior 54.2).
- Wednesday 24 September: Australia CPI YoY (Aug) 2.9% (prior 2.8%).
- Thursday 25 September: USA GDP Annualized QoQ (2Q) 3.3 (prior 3.3%), Personal Consumption (2Q) 1.6% (prior 1.6%), Core PCE Price Index QoQ (2Q) 2.5% (prior 2.5%), Durable Goods Orders (Aug P) -0.3% (prior -2.8%), New Home Sales (Aug) 650k (prior 652k), Wholesale Inventories MoM (Aug P) 0.1% (prior 0.1%), Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 20) 234k (prior 231k).
- Friday 26 September: USA Existing Home Sales (Aug) 3.96m (prior 4.01m), Personal Income (Aug) 0.3% (prior 0.4%), Personal Spending (Aug) 0.5% (prior 0.5%), Core PCE Price Index YoY (Aug) 2.9% (prior 2.9%), Core PCE Price Index MoM (Aug) 0.2% (prior 0.3%).
- Saturday 27 September: USA Uni of Michigan Sentiment (Sep F) 55.4 (prior 55.4).
Saward Dawson Wealth Advisors Pty Ltd, a Corporate Authorised Representative of Akambo Pty Ltd t/a Accountants Private Advice
The information presented in this publication is general information only, and is not intended to be financial product advice. It has not been prepared taking into account your investment objectives, financial situation or needs, and should not be used as the basis for making an investment decision. Before making any investment decision you need to consider (with your financial adviser) your particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances.
Some numerical figures in this publication have been subject to rounding adjustments. Akambo Pty Ltd (including any of its directors, officers or employees) will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of any reliance on this information. The market commentary reflect Akambo Pty Ltd’s views and beliefs at the time of preparation, which are subject to change without notice.
