22 June 2026 | Weekly Snapshot
Saward Dawson > Wealth Advisory Insights > Weekly Snapshot > 22 June 2026
Did you know?
Investor margin debt has been rising over the past few years and is now as high as it has been since COVID. The margin debt level is 3.5%, which in isolation isn’t large, but is a sign of some ‘frothiness’ in the stock market. We are watching such indicators closely. Alone, they are not necessarily significant but should be considered along with a broader set of indicators to assess the ongoing health of stock market performance.
Market Movements
The ASX has quietly turned positive for the year (+0.3% CYTD), though it continues to lag the S&P 500 (+10.7%) by more than 10 percent. The Aussie dollar weakened to $0.70, down from $0.72 last week — the combination of falling commodity prices and a still-hawkish Fed is weighing on the currency.
The two dominant trends from last week — AI rally and oil decline — both continued, but a third story emerged: gold sold off hard.
Oil fell again, dropping from $92 to $80.57. That’s a 30% decline from the April highs and the second consecutive week of heavy selling. The Energy sector gave back a chunk of its year-to-date lead, falling from +23.3% to +13.6% CYTD, while the ASX Resources sector held up better at +16.7% supported by copper ($13,530/t, +8.2% CYTD) and iron ore holding around $101. Whether this oil move signals genuine ceasefire progress or demand destruction from the slowdown the oil shock itself caused remains the central question for asset allocation.
Gold joined the selloff, falling from $4,561 to $4,224 — now negative for the year at -2.4% CYTD. Two weeks ago gold was comfortably positive; this is a sharp reversal. The move coincides with the oil decline — if the Iran crisis is de-escalating, the safe haven bid unwinds.
The AI semiconductor story continued to deliver staggering numbers. Micron crossed $1,134 and is now up 297% for the year. Broadcom surged 18.9% for the week on AI networking demand.
On the ASX, healthcare showed signs of life. The sector gained 4.9% for the week, improving from -31.8% to -25.4% CYTD, led by Cochlear’s 13.1% bounce. CSL remains down 32.6% for the year. HUB24 was a notable casualty, falling 11.6% for the week to $73.55 (-23.8% CYTD).
China continued to rally, with the Shenzhen A-Share index adding 2.3% for the week and now +12.8% for the year — quietly outperforming most developed markets. India moved in the opposite direction, with the SENSEX dropping 5.9% in a single week.
Portfolio Movements
BHP books US$2.3 billion write-down on Jansen potash Stage 2
- BHP announced that it will take a US$2.3 billion write-down on its Jansen potash project in Canada, after the Stage 2 expansion cost estimate rose to US$6.9 billion from a prior forecast of US$4.9 billion, with first Stage 2 production now pushed to end-2031.
- Stage 1 first output remains expected next year, though that phase has also seen repeated cost escalation, with the original 2021 approval estimate of US$5.7 billion now sitting at US$8.4 billion following a series of blowouts.
- Despite the higher Jansen costs, BHP still targets strong margins at the potash operation and frames the project as a long-life, low-cost, expandable asset with decades of shareholder value.
Nvidia raises $25 billion in bond market — First debt issuance in five years
- Nvidia sold $25 billion of high-grade bonds, its first bond offering since 2021, in a deal that attracted as much as $85 billion of orders with the deal boosted from an initial target of around $20 billion, underscoring strong investor demand.
- The bond consists of seven tranches of notes maturing as late as 2056 with the issuance reflecting a recent broader trend of technology giants leveraging debt markets to finance rapid AI expansion, with Meta filing for a bond offering of up to $30 billion and Alphabet recently issuing yen-denominated bonds.
- Nvidia has $13.24 billion in cash as of the quarter ended April 2026 and is investing heavily to release a new chip family annually.
Meta’s Threads reaches 500 million monthly users — New features rolled out
- Meta announced that Threads, the short-form social network launched in 2023 as a competitor to Elon Musk’s X, has reached 500 million monthly active users, with daily active users also higher than a year ago, counter to external estimates which had projected user decline.
- Threads had 350 million monthly active users at the time Meta opened ads on the platform to all users worldwide in February, meaning the platform has added 150 million monthly users since then; the growing, fully monetised audience directly widens the reach available to advertisers.
- The company is also adding a Communities Hub, expanded feed controls via a feature called “Your Algo,” and graduating its Communities feature out of beta, all aimed at converting user growth into sustained engagement for advertisers.
The Week Ahead
- Monday 22 June: China NBS Manufacturing PMI (June) — consensus ~52.0. Prior (May): 52.2. Prior year (Jun 2025): ~49.5. The April reading was the strongest since December 2020, and a sustained print above 50 would confirm China’s manufacturing recovery is durable despite the Iran conflict disruption.
- Wednesday 24 June: Australia GDP Q1 2026 (ABS) — Consensus: +0.5% QoQ. Prior (Q4 2025): Westpac forecasts the 0.5% print will be the last positive quarter for a while, warning that Q2 2026 could deliver the first quarterly contraction since the GFC (excluding COVID) as the full impact of the Iran/Hormuz conflict feeds through. The standout within the release will be business investment — data centre capex almost doubled in Q1, with private capex surveys pointing to the strongest business investment growth since the mining boom of the 2000s
- Thursday 25 June: US ISM Services PMI (May) — consensus ~51.5. Prior: 51.8. Prior year (May 2025): ~53.8. Services has been the resilient pillar of the US economy; any print below 50 would signal the oil-shock-driven slowdown is broadening beyond manufacturing. US Initial Jobless Claims — consensus ~218K. Prior: 215K. Prior year: ~220K.
- Friday 26 June: US Nonfarm Payrolls (May) — consensus ~170K. Prior (Apr): ~175K. Prior year (May 2025): ~180K. The labour market has been remarkably resilient through the oil shock — any significant miss below 150K would reignite recession fears and potentially accelerate Fed rate cut expectations. US Unemployment Rate (May) — consensus 4.2%. Prior: 4.2%. Prior year: 4.0%.
Saward Dawson Wealth Advisors Pty Ltd, a Corporate Authorised Representative of Akambo Pty Ltd t/a Accountants Private Advice
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Some numerical figures in this publication have been subject to rounding adjustments. Akambo Pty Ltd (including any of its directors, officers or employees) will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of any reliance on this information. The market commentary reflect Akambo Pty Ltd’s views and beliefs at the time of preparation, which are subject to change without notice.
