21 September 2026 | Weekly Snapshot
Saward Dawson > Wealth Advisory Insights > Weekly Snapshot > 21 September 2026
Did you know?
In Australia, around 500,000 people regularly use a GLP-1 drug, commonly known as a ‘fat drug’. This is a tenfold rise in five years.
Global GLP-1 drug sales reached roughly US$64 billion in 2025, in one of the most concentrated markets in healthcare: the top three — Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk and, a distant third, Sanofi — hold more than 95% between them.
Market Movements
The ASX finished the week within a whisker of where it started, which flatters five sessions that were pulled in two directions. The damage was concentrated in property and consumer staples, while healthcare was comfortably the strongest sector. Underneath the large caps the smaller end of the market had a far better week, with both the Small Ordinaries and the Emerging Companies index higher — a continuation of the past month, where the speculative end has outperformed the index heavyweights that dominate most client portfolios.
The local technology unwind ran on. WiseTech (held) has now fallen in 15 of the past 18 sessions for a cumulative decline of about 21%, and Xero (held) in 18 of the past 21 for roughly 26%. Neither company released anything of substance during the week. What has changed is the discount rate applied to them: with the US 10-year yield carrying a 5 handle and central banks tightening rather than easing, the market is unwilling to pay the multiple it did a year ago for growth that arrives late this decade.
Bullock spells out the hard road. The Reserve Bank governor and three senior officials appeared before the House economics committee on Friday, and the tone was not conciliatory. Michele Bullock outlined a hard road ahead on inflation, with oil supply disruption continuing to feed price growth, while deputy governor Andrew Hauser observed that global real interest rates are now closer to a sensible long-run level than they have been for some years. Markets responded by pricing better than a four-in-five chance of a 25 basis point increase at the 29 September meeting, which would lift the cash rate to 4.60%.
The bond market has gone considerably further than that. Traders are now positioned for four more increases by August next year on top of the two already delivered in 2026. That is a striking amount of tightening to price for an economy where trimmed mean inflation is running at 3.6% rather than anything resembling a crisis, and it suggests the market believes the RBA has lost the argument that energy-driven inflation is temporary. Australian yields did ease modestly over the week, which owed more to a hedging unwind than to any change of view.
The Australian dollar slipped slightly against the US dollar. That is a respectable outcome in a week when the Federal Reserve raised rates, and it reflects the market’s expectation that the RBA will shortly match the move.
The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75–4.00% on Wednesday, its first increase since July 2023, on a unanimous 12–0 vote. The updated projections showed 16 of the 18 participants expecting at least one further increase this year, four of whom see two. The committee’s own forecast has PCE inflation at 3.7% this year before easing to 2.3% in 2027.
Chair Kevin Warsh was direct about the reasoning. The American economy appears to be strengthening, productivity growth is strong, capital investment is robust, and he said he would be hard-pressed to describe financial conditions as restrictive. The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate in the same week, and the Bank of England held at 3.75% with three of its nine members voting for an increase. This was, in short, the week the global easing cycle was formally buried.
The notable part is that American equities rose anyway, with the Nasdaq leading. A hawkish first hike in three years, delivered alongside a dot plot pointing to more, was read as confirmation that growth is strong rather than as a threat to valuations. European and UK markets took the opposite view.
Oil is the reason. Oil eased over the week but still sits a little above US$100 a barrel, and it is the single variable sitting behind almost everything above. FactSet calculates the oil price is 47% higher than it was on 30 June. That is what has pushed headline inflation higher in both economies, what has forced the Fed’s hand, and what has the RBA describing a hard road. The conflict involving Iran remains unresolved, which leaves two central banks setting policy against a price neither of them controls.
US earnings consensus. FactSet’s Earnings Insight of 18 September has the S&P 500 expected to report third-quarter earnings growth of 28.9%, up from 26.7% at the start of the quarter. Analysts almost always cut their estimates as a quarter progresses — by an average of 2.2% over the past five years — and this quarter they have raised them by 1.6%. Of the companies that have issued guidance, 63% have guided above consensus, against a five-year average of 41%.
The more useful number is the valuation. The forward price-to-earnings ratio has fallen to 19.1 from 20.4 at the end of June, because the index has risen 1.8% over that period while forward earnings estimates have risen 8.8%. On this measure the American market is cheaper than it was three months ago despite trading higher — an unusual combination, and a reasonable part of the answer to why equities absorbed a rate rise without complaint. Energy is doing a disproportionate share of the lifting, with the sector expected to grow earnings by around 110% on the same quarter last year.
Portfolio Insights
Dexus data centre consortium signs first-stage lease with Anthropic
- Dexus (held) holds a 25% interest in Australian Data Centres (ADC), in a consortium with Zerra DC and Macquarie Capital, in connection with a proposed hyperscale data centre campus in the Western Downs region of Queensland.
- The consortium has entered lease documentation with the Australian subsidiary of Anthropic for delivery of the first stage of the campus, subject to customary approvals.
- ADC is conducting a capital raising to introduce additional capital partners. Dexus may participate as an investor but has not yet decided, and future funding obligations remain subject to approvals including Dexus board approval
James Hardie falls 5% after investor day guidance disappoints
- James Hardie (held) held its first investor day as a combined company with AZEK in New York on 15 September. It reaffirmed FY27 sales and adjusted EBITDA guidance, raised the FY27 free cash flow target, and said the original US$125 million cost synergy target will now be achieved roughly a year ahead of schedule.
- Management framed a long-term algorithm of 4% to 7% organic growth above market, built on a US$23 billion material conversion opportunity and US$500 million of revenue synergies, and was careful to say the plan does not rely on a housing recovery.
- The shares fell about 5% on the day, which suggests the buy side wanted more than reaffirmed guidance from a first investor day.
Ramsay Santé sets out Connecting Care 2030 ahead of December demerger to Ramsay shareholders
- Ramsay Santé, the European hospital, and primary care group that is 53% owned by Ramsay Health Care, held its Capital Markets Day in Paris on Friday unveiled Connecting Care 2030, a four-year strategic roadmap built on five pillars. The Ramsay Santé group operates 491 facilities across France, Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Italy, treating 13 million patients a year.
- The plan targets revenue growth of 2.0% to 3.0% excluding currency in FY2027 with a stable EBITDA margin, then around 3.0% per annum through to FY2029 with gradual margin improvement. Gross capital expenditure is guided to around 4.0% of revenue on average across FY2027 to FY2029, with deleveraging continuing towards net debt to EBITDA below 4.0 times on a pre-IFRS basis. Chief executive Pascal Roché described the plan as unlocking the full potential of the platform through deeper patient coverage, new revenue streams and productivity.
- Ramsay intends to distribute its entire 52.79% stake in-specie, with implementation expected in December, following a November shareholder vote. Holders would receive Ramsay Santé shares in proportion to their Ramsay holding.
The Week Ahead
- Thursday 24 September — Australia Labour Force (August). Unemployment rate consensus 4.5% (prior 4.5%) and employment change +15,000 (prior −15,800), with the participation rate expected to hold steady. This is the final significant domestic input before the RBA board meets on 28–29 September. JP Morgan’s view is that a result in line with forecast keeps the board on track to hike; a fall in the unemployment rate would make the move a formality, and only a materially weak print gives the board a reason to wait.
- Friday 25 September — US durable goods orders (August). Non-defence capital goods orders excluding aircraft are the cleanest monthly read on business investment, which Warsh singled out this week as evidence the economy is strengthening. If that series softens, the case for a second hike this year weakens with it. The Atlanta Fed’s third-quarter GDP estimate updates the same day.
- Earnings — none of our holdings report this week.
Saward Dawson Wealth Advisors Pty Ltd, a Corporate Authorised Representative of Akambo Pty Ltd t/a Accountants Private Advice
The information presented in this publication is general information only, and is not intended to be financial product advice. It has not been prepared taking into account your investment objectives, financial situation or needs, and should not be used as the basis for making an investment decision. Before making any investment decision you need to consider (with your financial adviser) your particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances.
Some numerical figures in this publication have been subject to rounding adjustments. Akambo Pty Ltd (including any of its directors, officers or employees) will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of any reliance on this information. The market commentary reflect Akambo Pty Ltd’s views and beliefs at the time of preparation, which are subject to change without notice.
