20 July 2026 | Weekly Snapshot

Saward Dawson > Wealth Advisory Insights > Weekly Snapshot > 20 July 2026

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After strong recent performance, Apple has briefly overtaken Nvidia to be the largest listed company once again. Both with market valuations of approx. US$4.9trillion, Nvidia and Apple are bigger than Japan (with an annual GDP of US$4.2 trillion), Germany (US$4.5 Trillion) and India (US$3.9 Trillion).

Market Movements

The Iran ceasefire collapse dominated this week. After just three weeks, the Islamabad peace framework fell apart when Iran struck three commercial ships in the Hormuz Strait, the US retaliated with strikes on 90 Iranian targets, and Trump declared the deal “over” at the NATO summit. Oil surged 5.8% for the week to $81.55, and the ASX Energy sector responded immediately — up 19.1% year-to-date, now comfortably the best-performing sector on the Australian market. The Hormuz Strait, which handles 20% of global oil and 30% of LNG, remains contested. Gold continued its slide, falling to $4,013 and now down 7.2% for the year — a remarkable reversal from its $5,595 peak in April. The safe haven that rallied on Iran tensions is now selling off even as those tensions return.

The ASX remains barely positive at +0.4% for the year, lagging the S&P 500’s +8.9% by 8.5 percentage points. Healthcare improved marginally (now -20.7% year-to-date, up from -25.4% a month ago) but remains deeply in the red. The Australian 10-year bond yield ticked up to 4.95%, consistent with lingering rate hike expectations. China was the week’s biggest casualty. The Shenzhen A-Share index was lower by 5.2% last week.

The semiconductor narrative shifted sharply. Micron fell 9.4% and Intel dropped 7.8% as Meta’s overcapacity announcement raised questions about future GPU demand. CrowdStrike was the standout in the opposite direction, up 8.1% for the week and an remarkable 73.8% for the year on cybersecurity demand. Apple added 5.2% on strong iPhone AI features uptake.

Iron ore slipped below $100 for the first time in several months ($99.88, -7.7% year-to-date), reflecting the China growth concerns. Uranium held steady at $85.65 (+5.0% CYTD) as the nuclear renaissance narrative remains intact despite broader commodity weakness.

In the USA, the June headline CPI came in at 3.5% year on year, down from 4.2% last month and below the 3.8% expected providing a welcome reprieve.

We are at the start of Q2 US earnings season. Annual earnings growth estimates coming into the reporting season were for a very strong 23.2%. These strong earnings numbers have seen the forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 fall to around 20 x and largely in line with its 5- and 10-year averages of 20 x and 19 x respectively.

Portfolio Movements

JPMorgan opens US Q2 reporting season with a headline beat

JPMorgan (held) reported Q2 headline EPS of US$7.70, up around 47% year on year and well ahead of consensus near US$5.55, on revenue above US$58 billion.
The result was flattered by around US$5.6 billion of one-off pre-tax gains, primarily a US$4.6 billion gain on Visa shares; adjusted EPS was US$6.14, still comfortably ahead of the US$5.80 expected. Shares rose around 2%.
CEO Jamie Dimon called the US economy resilient, citing stronger business investment and hiring supported by AI-driven capital investment, fiscal stimulus, and lighter regulation, but cautioned on elevated asset prices and risks including geopolitical tensions and sticky inflation.

Xero falls as CEO sells shares, whilst WiseTech clarifies relationship with largest customer DSV

Problem stock Xero (held) was lower after disclosing that CEO Sukhinder Singh Cassidy had sold her entire remaining direct holding of 29,608 ordinary shares on market at around $74 last week, worth approximately $2.2 million.
Our other problem tech stock WiseTech (held) provided an update addressing ongoing media and online speculation about the status of its commercial relationship with DSV, one of the world’s largest freight forwarders and a foundational CargoWise customer.
The company said DSV remains an active customer, with CargoWise transaction volumes up around 20% over the past six months following DSV’s integration of DB Schenker, while user counts rose around 3%. Both parties are committed under an existing contract, including a substantial financial commitment, to September 2028, with discussions under way on collaboration beyond that date.

South32 delivers strong FY26 operating results, accelerates shift to base metals

South32 (held) exceeded group production guidance for FY26 and lifted quarterly sales volumes by 15%, aided by strong commodity market conditions. Sierra Gorda beat guidance by 2% and delivered record distributions of US$401 million (South32 share); Cannington lifted quarterly production 29%.
The 1 July sale of its aluminium value chain business to Alcoa, at an implied enterprise value of up to US$5.6 billion, repositions the company as an upstream base metals producer, with around 85% of pro-forma earnings from base and precious metals.
Development milestones included approval of a fourth grinding line at Sierra Gorda, expected to lift copper equivalent production around 30% from FY31, and a Final Record of Decision on 7 July for the Taylor zinc-lead-silver project at Hermosa.

The Week Ahead

Monday 20 July: People’s Bank of China (PBoC) rate decision — consensus: HOLD at 3.00%. The PBoC last cut in May 2025 and has been on hold since.
Wednesday 22 July: UK CPI (June) — consensus ~2.1% YoY. Prior: 2.3%. Prior year (Jun 2025): ~2.0%. If UK inflation continues to moderate, it gives the Bank of England room to pause its tightening cycle.
Thursday 23 July: Australia Employment (June) — consensus: +19,000 jobs, unemployment 4.5%. Prior (May): +40,300 (comfortably above consensus). Prior year (Jun 2025): unemployment ~4.1%. ECB Interest Rate Decision — consensus: HOLD at 2.25% (78% probability). The ECB hiked 25 basis points to 2.25% in June — the first hike since 2023. Eurozone inflation remains above target at 2.8%, with energy inflation projected to peak at 12.5% in Q3 (Iran/Hormuz impact).
Friday 24 July: Flash PMIs (July) — S&P Global Manufacturing and Services for the US, Eurozone, Germany, and UK. US Manufacturing consensus ~53.9. US Services prior: 51.2. Prior year (Jul 2025): US Manufacturing ~48.5. Any sharp decline in the Services PMI would signal the oil shock is beginning to weigh on the broader economy. US Initial Jobless Claims (consensus ~212K, prior 208K) also released.

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Saward Dawson Wealth Advisors Pty Ltd, a Corporate Authorised Representative of Akambo Pty Ltd t/a Accountants Private Advice

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