19 October 2026 | Weekly Snapshot
Saward Dawson > Wealth Advisory Insights > Weekly Snapshot > 19 October 2026
Did you know?
Chinese AI models now handle more than five times the weekly usage of US models on OpenRouter. OpenRouter is a popular platform used by developers to access and switch between AI models. Open-weight models such as DeepSeek and Alibaba’s Qwen are typically 60–90% cheaper than the leading US offerings, and for routine coding and automation work, “good enough and cheap” is winning.
OpenRouter is a gateway rather than the whole market, and US frontier models still capture more of the spending, but it is a reminder that the AI payoff may not flow only to whoever spends the most building it.
Market Movements
The ASX was flat last week. The banks did much of the lifting, with ANZ (+4.6%), NAB (+4.4%), Westpac (+4.2%) and CBA (+3.4%) all higher as expectations of another RBA rate hike faded. WiseTech (+11.8%) led tech after a regulatory cloud lifted. Resources were the soft spot: Rio Tinto fell 4.6% and South32 5.7%, despite Rio delivering a solid quarterly update.
A jobs shock takes the heat off the RBA. Australia’s unemployment rate jumped to 4.7% in September from 4.6%, the highest in five years, as 39,000 jobs were lost and the participation rate fell to 66.8%. The RBA lifted rates for a fourth time in September, and Governor Bullock has said unemployment of between 4.5% and 5% would probably be enough to take the pressure off inflation. We are now in the middle of that range, and markets have pared back bets on another hike.
Households are already feeling the squeeze. Westpac’s consumer sentiment index fell 4.7% to 80.4 in October, close to the weakest readings in the survey’s history. The September-quarter CPI, due at the end of the month, now becomes the deciding input for the RBA. The A$ barely changed at $0.696
US stocks fell [S&P 500 -1.9%, Nasdaq -4.1%) with technology at the centre of the damage. Two things went wrong at once. First, US inflation came in hot: consumer prices rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% over the year, above the 3.6% expected, with petrol up 9.1% in the month accounting for more than half the increase. More worrying for the Fed, core inflation (which strips out food and energy) also beat, at 2.6% against 2.5% expected.
Having raised rates in September for the first time in three years, the Fed now faces a live decision at its 27–28 October meeting. Markets lifted the odds of an October hike to roughly 50%.
Who pays for the AI build-out? Second, confidence in the AI trade cracked. The 20 most valuable AI and semiconductor stocks globally shed more than US$1 trillion in value during the week. The selling started in memory chips after Chinese manufacturer CXMT flagged a new server memory product, then broadened when the chief executives of Broadcom and Intel warned that access to funding could become a bigger constraint on the AI boom than shortages of chips or power. Rising bond yields made that question harder to ignore.
Not everyone thinks the sell-off is justified. Bank of America points out that Nvidia, Broadcom and Micron now trade at around 13x forward earnings, in line with where Cisco traded after the dot-com bubble had already burst.
US earnings consensus. FactSet’s latest data (16 October) shows blended S&P 500 earnings growth of 29.0% for the September quarter, with 9% of companies reported. That would be a third consecutive quarter above 25%. Companies have historically beaten estimates by enough that FactSet expects the final figure to come in above 35%. So far, earnings are not the problem; the price investors are prepared to pay for them is.
Portfolio Insights
Software stocks rally, mirroring declines AI stocks.
We saw broad uplifts across multiple software names last week, including Wisetech, Xero, REA, Pro-Medicus among others offshore.
WiseTech Global (WTC, held) rose 11.8% after ASIC closed its almost year-long insider trading investigation into founder Richard White and two employees, issuing no-action letters, and closed its review of the company’s governance.
That removes one of several clouds over the stock, although ACCC and shareholder legal matters remain. Even after consecutive weekly gains, the shares are still more than 40% below where they started the year.
Bank of America lower after quarterly earnings report
- Bank of America shares (held) were lower after reporting Q3 EPS of $1.08 last night, excluding a larger than expected $1.2 billion regulatory settlement charge for AML and sanctions compliance issues stemming back to late 2024, came in just below the $1.10 expected. Q3 revenue of $30.0 billion was also a slight miss on the $30.6 billion expected.
- Net interest income rose 8% to $16.4 billion, but sales and trading revenue fell 5% to $5.1 billion and investment banking fees fell 11% to $1.8 billion. The CET1 ratio eased to 10.9% after $6.0 billion of buybacks in the quarter.
- CEO Brian Moynihan said the bank’s “clearest economic signal” is the daily activity of its 70 million clients and that consumers “continue to spend”. CFO Alastair Borthwick in the Q&A said there is a “good US economy supported by the consumer and by the AI CapEx”, and that commercial loan growth shows the capex cycle continuing.
SpaceX spectrum deal lifts American Tower
- American Tower (held) shares rose as SpaceX announced Friday they entered an agreement to buy 100% of Grain Management’s nationwide 800 MHz low-band spectrum portfolio, comprising up to 14 megahertz of paired frequencies. The deal is reportedly valued at $8 billion and is subject to FCC approval. SpaceX said the deal addresses one of the key remaining technical gaps for Starlink Mobile to become a major US carrier.
- American Tower shares rose 9.30% to $182 on the news with analyst commentary was broadly bullish on a measurable uplift to tower leasing, site rental revenues and AFFO from a SpaceX terrestrial buildout, though the longer-term benefit is less certain.
The Week Ahead
- Monday 19 October — China Q3 GDP: consensus 4.5% year-on-year (prior 4.3%), alongside September retail sales consensus 0.6% (prior 0.4%) and industrial production consensus 5.5% (prior 5.2%).
Meta (held): Reports wednesday. Consensus revenue US$63.3 billion versus US$51.2 billion a year ago (+24%), against guidance of US$61–64 billion. Consensus EPS US$6.58 versus US$7.25 adjusted a year ago (−9%; the reported US$1.05 included a one-off US$15.9 billion tax charge). The key metric is capex: 2026 is guided at US$130–145 billion, and any first word on 2027 goes straight to last week’s question of who funds the AI build-out. Shares fell around 11% after the June-quarter result on a profit miss and soft guidance, with free cash flow falling to US$784 million.
Thermo Fisher (held), Wednesday 21 October before the US open. Consensus revenue US$11.95 billion versus US$11.12 billion (+7.5%); EPS US$6.40 versus US$5.79 (+10.6%). Watch organic growth and any change to full-year guidance.
CME Group (held), Wednesday 21 October before the US open. Consensus revenue US$1.71 billion versus US$1.54 billion (+11%); EPS US$2.98 versus US$2.68 (+11%). Analysts have made ten upgrades to earnings estimates and no downgrades over the past 100 days; rate-hike repricing and volatile oil are good for futures volumes, so October trading commentary matters as much as the quarter.
Honeywell (held), Thursday 22 October before the US open. The first full quarter after the June spin-off of Honeywell Aerospace (HONA, held). Consensus revenue US$5.0 billion and EPS US$2.17;
Union Pacific (held), Thursday 22 October before the US open. Consensus revenue US$7.14 billion versus US$6.24 billion (+14%); EPS US$3.47 versus US$3.08 (+13%). Watch volumes and the operating ratio; objections to the Norfolk Southern merger are due with the regulator in November.
Saward Dawson Wealth Advisors Pty Ltd, a Corporate Authorised Representative of Akambo Pty Ltd t/a Accountants Private Advice
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Some numerical figures in this publication have been subject to rounding adjustments. Akambo Pty Ltd (including any of its directors, officers or employees) will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of any reliance on this information. The market commentary reflect Akambo Pty Ltd’s views and beliefs at the time of preparation, which are subject to change without notice.
