17 November 2025 | Weekly Snapshot
Saward Dawson > Wealth Advisory Insights > Weekly Snapshot > 17 November 2025
Did you know?
The USA is now collecting approx. US$30bn per month from tariffs. Despite this, US government debt continues to increase, with debt rising by an average of US$400bn over the last 4 consecutive months including October. It makes you consider whether high and growing levels of US government debt are a constant going forward.
Market Movements
The Australian market fell 1.4% last week with banks and tech stocks leading the downside. CBA fell 11% after a flat profit result. Given CBA’s high valuation, flat profits were not enough, which is why the stock fell. Stocks with high valuations were among the worst performers again this week, with Life 360 and Xero down 20% and 15% respectively. Countering this downside was the resource and energy sector, up 2% and 1.9% respectively, helped by gas prices, which were higher by 5%. Lithium miner Pilbara was a standout, up 30%.
In the USA, stocks were up 0.1% whereas the tech-heavy Nasdaq was down 0.5%. Similar story to Australia, with high valuation areas leading the downside (Info tech down 2.2% and communication services down 3%) whilst materials and energy were higher. The US House passed the bill to reopen the government, marking the end of the US government shutdown.
On economics, strong data out of Australia with the unemployment rate falling to 4.3% (from 4.5%) and consumer confidence jumping 9.7%. China retail sales rose 2.9%, which was relatively weak.
Nvidia reports Wednesday night, which will be a key event given both its size and earnings leadership. The below 5-year price chart shows some perspective on Nvidia. The red/green bars show the share price, which is sitting close to $190. The green line shows earnings-per-share, which has basically risen in a straight line since 2023. The blue line at the bottom measures their valuation in terms of the price-to-earnings ratio, which currently sits at 30x next year’s earnings. This is a high valuation and shows that the market continues to have high growth expectations. Nvidia operates in, historically, a highly cyclical sector and investors are somewhat out of position if growth prospects cool down.
Portfolio Movements
Commonwealth Bank provides Q1 update as Aussie bank reporting season concludes
- CBA, our largest company, has provided an inline Q1 update with unaudited cash NPAT of $2.6B, up 1% on 2H25 quarterly average and up 2% on the prior comparative quarter.
- CEO Matt Comyn noted cost-of-living pressures remain a challenge for many, but the Australian economy remains resilient, economic growth is recovering and disposable income is rising for many households.
- That rounds out the domestic FY bank reporting season with similar themes of subdued earnings growth, and elevated valuations, but strong balance sheets and low impairments.
Dyno Nobel reports solid FY result
- Recent addition to the equities portfolio, Dyno Nobel, reported a better-than-expected FY result with FY EBIT of $714M at the top end of the recently upgraded guidance.
- The divestment of the Incitec Pivot fertilizers business is now largely complete including the sale of their prime industrial site Gibson Island on the Brisbane River to Goodman Group.
- The company will be focused on the higher margin explosives business post the fertilizer divestment. Dyno provided FY26 EBIT guidance of A$460 – $500 million, ahead of market estimates for $463 million.
Xero reports strong first half
- Leading accounting software provider Xero has reported a solid first half result but not strong enough to impress the market with shares trading lower.
- Operating revenue of NZ$1.19B is in line with expectations but adjusted EBITDA of NZ$350.9M is a decent beat on the NZ$334.9M expected.
- Subscribers at 4,590K was tad below expectations for 4,607K but Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) of NZ$49.63 is well ahead of the NZ$43.80 expected.
- Xero continues to dominate its home markets of Australia and NZ and growth in the UK remains strong also. Cracking the US is the big prize with North American subscribers at 419K, in line with expectations.
The Week Ahead
- Tuesday 18 November: USA Empire Manufacturing (Nov) 5.8 (prior 10.7), Construction Spending MoM (Aug) 0.1% (prior -0.1%).
- Wednesday 19 November: Factory Orders (Aug) 1.4% (prior -1.3%), Durable Goods Orders (Aug F) 2.9% (prior 2.9%). Australia Wage Price Index QoQ (Q3) 0.8% (prior 0.8%) & YoY 3.4% (prior 3.4%).
- Friday 21 November: USA Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 15) 225k (–no prior data due to US Govt Shutdown–), Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) 50k (prior 22k), Unemployment Rate ((Sep) 4.3% (prior 4.3%), Existing Home Sales (Sep) 1,328k (prior 1,307k). United Kingdom Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel MoM (Oct) +0.0% (prior 0.5%), S&P Global UK Services PMI (Nov P) 52.0 (prior 52.3), S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMU (Nov P) 49.2 (prior 49.7), S&P Global UK Composite PMI (Nov P) 51.8 (prior 52.2)
- Saturday 22 November: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Nov P) 52.0 (prior 52.5), S&P Global US Services PMI (Nov P) 55.0 (prior54.8).
Saward Dawson Wealth Advisors Pty Ltd, a Corporate Authorised Representative of Akambo Pty Ltd t/a Accountants Private Advice
The information presented in this publication is general information only, and is not intended to be financial product advice. It has not been prepared taking into account your investment objectives, financial situation or needs, and should not be used as the basis for making an investment decision. Before making any investment decision you need to consider (with your financial adviser) your particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances.
Some numerical figures in this publication have been subject to rounding adjustments. Akambo Pty Ltd (including any of its directors, officers or employees) will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of any reliance on this information. The market commentary reflect Akambo Pty Ltd’s views and beliefs at the time of preparation, which are subject to change without notice.
