17 August 2026 | Weekly Snapshot
Saward Dawson > Wealth Advisory Insights > Weekly Snapshot > 17 August 2026
Did you know?
In 1997, in his very first letter to shareholders, Jeff Bezos told investors that Amazon would deliberately sacrifice short-term profitability in favour of long-term market leadership. For the next four years, Amazon burned cash building warehouses and infrastructure years ahead of the revenue needed to justify it — a notorious 1999 Barron’s cover even branded the company “Amazon.bomb.” It took until Q4 2001, four years of negative free cash flow later, for Amazon to report its first-ever quarterly profit.
We’re watching a version of that same bet today, at much larger scale. Consensus estimates now show the combined free cash flow of Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle turning negative through 2026-27 — the deepest hyperscaler cash burn on record — before a sharp rebound to roughly $520 billion by 2030.
But that is a consensus forecast. As we move forward in time, the cash flow reality could be vastly different. Investors should be prepared for bigger swings ahead, as more debt is layered on to finance hyperscaler growth.
Market Movements
The ASX All Ords fell 1.4% last week (+3.3% CYTD) while the S&P 500 added 0.4% (+13.7% CYTD) and the Nasdaq was flat at +0.1% (+15.0% CYTD). The Nikkei 225 jumped 3.3% and remains the standout global index YTD at +23.7%, while the DAX added 0.5% (+8.0% CYTD) and the STOXX Europe 50 rose 0.2% (+12.9% CYTD). The UK FTSE 100 fell 1.5% (+8.2% CYTD) and India’s SENSEX dropped 0.6%, the only major index in the red YTD at -8.5%.
Locally, Utilities led the ASX, up 7.4% (+5.7% CYTD), and Energy continued its run, +2.8% this week and +27.3% CYTD — the best-performing local sector all year. On the downside, Financials fell 3.2% (+4.4% CYTD).
In commodities, gold rose 0.8% to US$4,380.60/oz (+1.3% CYTD) and copper gained 2.1% to US$14,545/ton (+16.3% CYTD). Crude oil rose 2.3% to US$88.52/bbl; iron ore is now -11.2% CYTD; uranium rose 0.9% to US$87.45/lb (+12.7% CYTD).
The AUD rose 0.2% to US$0.71 (+6.2% CYTD). The RBA cash rate held at 4.10%; the 10-year yield eased to 4.98% and the 2-year fell to 4.55%. In the US, the Fed funds rate held at 3.60%, the 2-year yield fell to 4.17% and the 10-year rose to 4.69%.
FactSet’s latest data (7 August) shows blended Q2 2026 S&P 500 earnings growth at 50.4% YoY — the highest since Q2 2021 — with an 86% beat rate vs. the five-year average of 78%. Excluding Alphabet and Amazon’s outsized contributions, blended growth falls to a still-strong 32.0%.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) — Shares surged as much as 28% after EPS of $1.70 crushed the ~$0.71-0.96 consensus, with FY2027 revenue guidance of $65-72bn well above the $52.5bn Street estimate.
Micron (MU) — Shares rose 10.7% (+34.1% CYTD) after Counterpoint data showed Micron’s DRAM market share climbing to 25%, closing in on SK Hynix’s 26%.
Portfolio Insights
Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)
- Shares fell 6.8% last week after the Q3 FY26 trading update showed net profit (ex-notables) of $1.8bn, up 2% on the first-half average, with net interest margin steady at 1.89%.
- The market’s concern was trajectory, not the quarter: mortgage applications are down ~20% since May’s federal budget, and CET1 eased to 12.1% from 12.4%.
- Management now expects housing credit growth to slow from 6.8% in FY26 to 4.7% in FY27.
ASX Ltd posts record FY26 revenue — Shares higher despite technology and remediation costs
- ASX Ltd reported record FY26 operating revenue of $1.25 billion, up 13.3% on the prior year, with all four business units contributing to growth and cash market trading revenue up 24.2%. Underlying net profit after tax rose 5.2% to $536.4 million, while statutory NPAT fell 3.5% to $484.9 million due to $51.5 million in after-tax significant items, including CHESS Replacement Partnership payments and the ASIC settlement penalty.
- The company declared a fully franked final dividend of 104.7 cents per share, taking the full year total to 206.5 cents, down 7.5% on FY25 — yet shares traded higher on the news.
- Interim CEO Darren Yip called FY26 “a landmark year” for ASX, pointing to the conclusion of the ASIC inquiry, the settlement of CHESS-related proceedings, and the CEO transition. He said the exchange demonstrated “operational resilience” through a period of record trading volumes.
Broadcom (AVGO)
- Shares fell 8.1% last week after hackers were confirmed to be actively exploiting a security flaw that gave them a foothold in customers’ core virtualisation infrastructure, with 361 IP addresses compromised across 47 countries.
- It’s a reminder of how concentrated the internet’s plumbing has become: on November 18, 2025, a routine Cloudflare configuration error knocked out roughly one in five of the world’s top websites for hours, grounding flight planning at Australian airports and taking down everything from Uber to major banks and government services across the country.
The Week Ahead
- Tuesday 18 Aug – Home Depot reports Q2 FY26 — consensus EPS $4.71 (vs. $4.68 year-ago, +0.6% YoY), revenue ~$41.8bn; comparable sales the key metric after a soft Q1.
BHP reports FY26 full-year results — consensus NPAT US$12.41bn vs. FY25’s US$10.2bn underlying attributable profit (+21.7% YoY), a rebound after FY25’s 26% decline on weak iron ore/coal prices; FY27 copper guidance (1,650-1,800kt) the key number to watch.
CSL also reports FY26 — underlying NPATA guided to US$3.45-3.55bn vs. FY25’s US$3.303bn (+7-10% YoY), though statutory/reported NPAT will likely show a decline due to one-off transformation-program restructuring and impairment costs — worth reading past the headline number. - Wednesday 19 Aug: Target reports Q2 FY26 — consensus EPS $2.25 (+9.8% YoY), revenue $26.1bn (+3.4% YoY); comp guidance of flat-to-2% is the number that matters after July retail sales fell 0.6% MoM, the first US retail sales decline in nine months.
- Thursday 20 Aug: Walmart reports Q2 FY26 — consensus EPS $0.73 (+7.4% YoY), revenue $186.3bn (+5.0% YoY).
Alibaba reports fiscal Q1 FY27 — consensus revenue RMB 268.5-268.9bn (+8% YoY), but adjusted EPS guided to RMB 10.8 (-27% YoY) and adjusted net income ~RMB 25.5bn (-28% YoY), as heavy AI/cloud infrastructure spend weighs on near-term profitability; Alibaba has missed EPS estimates in four straight quarters, so another negative surprise is a live risk.
Saward Dawson Wealth Advisors Pty Ltd, a Corporate Authorised Representative of Akambo Pty Ltd t/a Accountants Private Advice
The information presented in this publication is general information only, and is not intended to be financial product advice. It has not been prepared taking into account your investment objectives, financial situation or needs, and should not be used as the basis for making an investment decision. Before making any investment decision you need to consider (with your financial adviser) your particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances.
Some numerical figures in this publication have been subject to rounding adjustments. Akambo Pty Ltd (including any of its directors, officers or employees) will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of any reliance on this information. The market commentary reflect Akambo Pty Ltd’s views and beliefs at the time of preparation, which are subject to change without notice.
