16 June 2025 | Weekly Snapshot
Saward Dawson > Wealth Advisory Insights > Weekly Snapshot > 16 June 2025
Did you know?
The USA has grown to be one of the world’s largest single producers of oil, thanks to the shale boom beginning circa 2010. But did you know that almost half of the world’s oil production still comes from the middle east? No wonder that we see such sudden swings in the oil price at any sign of middle east conflicts.
Market Movements
The Australian markets rose by 0.3% last week, led by utilities (up 4.7%) and Energy (+6.5%). Tension in the middle east sent oil price soaring (+10.7%) taking Woodside (+9.9%) along for the ride. Travel relative business were the worst performers with Qantas down 5.3% and Flight Centre down 5.6%.
Similar story in the USA, where the S&P500 was lower by 0.5% overall but energy stocks were strong (up 6.5%). Germany (down 2.7%) was the worst perming market. Tesla was among the best performers in the USA (up 10.2%) with some reconciliations exchanged between Musk and the US President through social media.
On the economic front, U.S. CPI inflation rose by 2.4% in May and Australian consumer confidence was steady at 92.6.
Despite the many challenges that have been thrown at the market this year (tariffs on/off/repeat, middle east conflict, sticky inflation), company profits continue to drift higher overall. This can be seen in the below chart, which compares the earnings (Earnings per share or EPS) across the major regions. Over the last 12 months, Japan is the outlier, where earnings have risen almost 18%. China, the USA (S&P500) and World ex-USA are higher by 10%/8%/6% respectively. Only Australia is showing negative earnings growth for the last 12 months. Taken together, this is positive news for investors because the higher earnings will support higher stock prices.
Portfolio Movements
Adobe reports record Q2 – Raises guidance. Shares lower by 5.9% last week.
- Adobe reported a better-than-expected Q2 with EPS of $5.06 ahead of the $4.97 expected. Record Q2 revenue of $5.87B up 11% YOY was also ahead of the $5.80B expected.
- “Our strategy to deliver ground-breaking innovation for Business Professionals and Consumers, and Creative and Marketing Professionals is delighting customers, and we are pleased to raise Adobe’s FY25 revenue target,” said CEO Shantanu Narayen adding “Adobe’s AI innovation is transforming industries enabling individuals and enterprises to achieve unprecedented levels of creativity.”
- FY guidance was upgraded to EPS of $20.50-20.70 ex-items vs prior guidance of $20.20-$20.50.
- What do they do? Adobe provides web design, photo manipulation and vector creation, through to video/audio editing, mobile app development, print layout and animation software
Amazon continues to invest big in AI datacentres
- Amazon said they plan to invest another $20B in Pennsylvania to expand cloud computing infrastructure and advance AI innovation.
- They will spend another $7 billion expanding its data centre network in Australia, increasing the amount it pledged to spend in Australia between 2025 and 2029 to $20 billion.
- In terms of powering these energy intensive sites Amazon Web Services chief executive Matt Garman, a supporter of nuclear power to fuel the AI boom, suggested it could be done in Australia with solar power. This approach is at odds with the Australian Energy Regulator, who warned last week the spiralling costs for renewable energy could derail attempts to capture a significant share of the burgeoning data centre market.
- Shares were lower by 2.2% last week
ASX hosts investor forum – CHESS replacement remains on track for Q4FY26
- ASX Group is holding their Investor Forum and entering the 3rd year of their 5-year strategy. CEO Helen Lofthouse noted “It’s pleasing to be at the stage in our strategy where we can show steady progress of key deliverables”.
- The project to replace CHESS met several milestones during the recent period including opening the first test environment in February and targeting a go live for Release 1 of Q4 FY26, less than a year away.
- It been an expensive exercise although with capex peaking Lofthouse noted continued execution of disciplined expense management initiatives are expected to deliver annualised savings of ~$17 million into FY26 and targeting similar saving in FY27.
- Shares were basically flat last week.
The Week Ahead
- Monday 16 June: China Retail Sales (May) YoY forecast 4.6% (prior 5.1%), Industrial Production (May) YoY forecast 6.0% (prior 6.1%).
- Tuesday 17 June: USA Retail Sales Advance Mom (May) forecast -0.6% (prior 0.1%).
- Wednesday 18 June: USA Initial Jobless Claims (14 June) forecast 245k (prior 248k), Continuing Claims (7 June) 1,925k (prior 1,956k), Housing Starts (May) forecast 1,359k (prior 1,361k), Building permits (May) forecast 1,425k% (prior 1,422k
- Thursday 19 June: USA FOMC Rate Decision Lower Bound of 4.25% to Upper Bound of 4.5% (current 4.25% to 4.50%). Australia Unemployment Rate (May) forecast 4.1% (prior 4.1%), Employment Change (May) forecast 20.0k (prior 89.0k). United Kingdom Bank of England Bank Rate forecast 4.25% (current 4.25%).
- Friday 20 June: USA Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (May) forecast 125k (p.177k), Unemployment Rate (May) forecast 4.2% (p.4.2%).
Saward Dawson Wealth Advisors Pty Ltd, a Corporate Authorised Representative of Akambo Pty Ltd t/a Accountants Private Advice
The information presented in this publication is general information only, and is not intended to be financial product advice. It has not been prepared taking into account your investment objectives, financial situation or needs, and should not be used as the basis for making an investment decision. Before making any investment decision you need to consider (with your financial adviser) your particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances.
Some numerical figures in this publication have been subject to rounding adjustments. Akambo Pty Ltd (including any of its directors, officers or employees) will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of any reliance on this information. The market commentary reflect Akambo Pty Ltd’s views and beliefs at the time of preparation, which are subject to change without notice.
