16 February 2026 | Weekly Snapshot
Saward Dawson > Wealth Advisory Insights > Weekly Snapshot > 16 February 2026
Did you know?
The average daily trade value in the USA continues to rise and rise. This is shown by the below chart, which shows that daily equity turnover in the USA grew from US$300bn in the year 2020 to now over $1 Trillion, or a 3-fold increase. This reflects greater participation in day traders, both professional and non-professional, and the proliferation of exchange traded funds (ETFs). This results in larger daily price swings, which perhaps presents an opportunity for those who can take advantage of the daily volatility.
Market Movements
The Australian market was higher by 2.1% last week although strong sector divergence persisted, with resources and financial higher (4.4% and 5.4% respectively) whilst tech (down 5.6%) and health stocks (down 12.6%) were lower. James Hardie was among the winners (up 12.6%) on a strong earnings release. Cochlear was down 20% on an earning miss and Pro Medicus fell 25% along with a rotation out of stocks with high valuations.
The A$ has crept up to $0.71 reflecting what is now a strong premium on domestic bond yield compared to the USA. Gold bounced back above $5,000 (up 1.4% for the week), whereas copper fell 0.9%.
In the USA, the S&P500 index was lower by 1.4% with the tech-heavy Nasdaq down 2.1%. Utilities was the strongest sector (up 5.6%) whilst financial were lower by 3%. At the stock level, Apple was lower by 8%, caught up the broader rotation away from US stocks.
On economics and in the USA, January existing home sales unexpectedly sank by 8.4% from the previous month, the sharpest drop in nearly 4 years, after having reached a 3-year high in December. The delayed January non-farm payrolls report showed a 130K jobs gain, well above the 70K and the largest increase since late 2024 with the unemployment rate falling from 4.4% to 4.3%.
Ai disruption has been a large driver of price moves again this week, and this has had the biggest impact on software stocks. In many case, the market has taken a ‘sell first and find out later’ approach. The below 20-year chart shows valuations in the world software index. Even after the recent sell-off, valuations are still high-ish on a 20-year view.
Portfolio Movements
ANZ Q1 update looks good – Cost out delivering. Shares post strong gains.
- ANZ has provided a Q1 update that looks pretty good with Q1 cash profit of $1.94 Billion, up 75% on the quarterly average in H2 of FY25, and ahead of the $1.80B expected.
- Revenue is up 1%, net interest margins up 0.4% and other operating income up 5%. Expenses are down 8% with the cost out program delivering results, driving the cost-to-income ratio below 50%. And return on tangible equity improved to 11.7%.
- CEO Nuno Matos commented “The quarterly result highlights the early progress we are making in executing our ANZ 2030 strategy. Our productivity program aimed at removing duplication and simplifying the bank is well underway, delivering a significant reduction in expenses while growing revenue.”
James Hardie beats Q3 estimates – Shares rise
- US focused homebuilding materials company James Hardie had a solid result, a relief and nice turnaround from the disappointment back in August when the stock cratered. Adjusted Net Income of $142.2M was a decent beat on the $129.7M expected, on revenue $1.24B also ahead of the $1.24 bill. FY26 guidance was also upgraded.
- Net sales were up 30% to $1.24 billion largely driven by the AZEK acquisition contributing $275m with the AZEK integration ahead of schedule, already surpassing FY26 cost synergy targets and on track to hit the $125m cost synergy run rate.
- Pricing power was also good with North America fibre cement average sale price up 5%, offsetting 7% volume decline.
South 32 beats first half estimates
- South32 reported a better-than-expected H1 with profit jumping 29% year on year, increasing both the dividend and the buyback.
- South32 reported H1 FY26 profit of US$464 million, up 29% on the prior corresponding period, with underlying EBITDA rising 9% to US$1.11 billion despite revenue from continuing operations falling 3% to US$2.81 billion.
- The company declared a fully franked interim dividend of US 3.9 cents per share, up 15% on last year, and increased its capital management program by US$100 million.
- The Mozal aluminium smelter will move to care and maintenance in March 2026 due to ongoing electricity supply issues in Mozambique. And FY26 production and unit cost guidance remains unchanged across operated assets.
The Week Ahead
- Wednesday 18 Feb: USA Empire Manufacturing (Feb) 6.2 (prior 7.7)).
- Thursday 19 Feb: USA Durable Goods Orders (Dec P) -2.0% (prior 5.3%), Housing Starts (Dec) 1,307k, Industrial Production MoM (Jan) 0.4% (prior 0.4%), Leading Index (Dec) -0.2% (prior -0.3%). Australia Employment Change (Jan) 20.0k (prior 65.2k), Unemployment Rate (Jan) 4.2% (prior 4.1%).
- Friday 20 Feb: USA Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 14) 225k (prior 227k).
- Saturday 21 Feb: USA Personal Income (Dec) 0.3% (prior 0.3%), Personal Spending (Dec) 0.4 (prior 0.5%), Core PCE Price Index MoM (Dec) 0.3% (prior 0.2%), Core PCE Price Index YoY (Dec) 2.9% (prior 2.8%), GDP Annualised QoQ (4Q A) 3.0% (prior 4.4%), Personal Consumption (4Q A) 2.6% (prior 3.5%), Core PCE Price Index QoQ (4Q A) 2.6% (prior 2.9%), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb P) 52.3 (prior 52.4), S&P Global US Services PMI 52.9 (prior 52.7)
Saward Dawson Wealth Advisors Pty Ltd, a Corporate Authorised Representative of Akambo Pty Ltd t/a Accountants Private Advice
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