14 September 2026 | Weekly Snapshot
Saward Dawson > Wealth Advisory Insights > Weekly Snapshot > 14 September 2026
Did you know?
The United States’ Strategic Petroleum Reserve now holds about 285 million barrels of crude. That is the lowest level since November 1982, when the reserve was still being filled for the first time. At its peak in early 2010 it held 727 million barrels. It now sits at roughly 40% of its authorised capacity.
The reserve was created in 1975, after the Arab oil embargo, as insurance against precisely the sort of supply shock we are living through now. It has been spent in two waves. The first was 180 million barrels released in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The second was 172 million barrels authorised in March this year during the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the American share of a 400 million barrel action coordinated with other IEA member countries. Roughly 352 million barrels have come out in four years.
The hard physical floor, the volume that must stay in the caverns to keep the extraction pipes submerged in oil rather than water, is around 70 million barrels. Credible independent estimates of a sensible operating minimum run as high as 300 million. On that reading the reserve is already at the bottom of its useful range.
The investment consequences are higher oil prices, inflation and interest rates for longer.
Market Movements
The ASX had its worst week in six months and there was very little shelter. Only energy and utilities finished higher, and the damage was concentrated in the two places a sharp rise in interest rates does the most harm: anything carrying a high valuation, and anything priced off the gold price. Technology was the epicentre, and the gold miners handed back a decent slice of a very strong quarter.
Xero closed lower in every session and is now well over half its 52-week high, with no company announcement. WiseTech was not far behind. At the other end of the table Ingenia Communities jumped after rejecting a $4.75 a share cash takeover proposal from Warburg Pincus, and the rest of the leaderboard was almost entirely energy.
A fourth rate hike moves from possible to probable. The Australian ten-year bond yield reached its highest level since May 2011 and the three-year pushed above 5%. That is a fifteen-year high in the long bond, and it arrived in five sessions. The trigger was not domestic, it was oil. But the RBA’s response is domestic, and two senior officials made that clear in the same week. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said the Board will debate whether to raise rates at the September meeting, and Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said the Bank has little tolerance for stronger inflation.
Markets now attach roughly an 80% probability to a quarter-point increase to 4.60% on 29 September, which would be the fourth hike this year. The awkwardness is obvious: an oil shock is already a tax on households, so tightening into it means tightening into weakness. Business confidence slipped further into negative territory this week, with weaker profitability the main driver.
The Australian dollar drifted lower despite the move up in local yields.
The US market held up far better than ours. August consumer prices landed in line at the headline but core inflation was a tenth hotter than expected, and the producer price index the day before was the more troubling release. Consumer expectations for inflation over the year ahead rose to 4.6%.
By Friday, futures implied close to a 90% chance the Federal Reserve raises rates this week, which would be the first increase since 2023. Two-year Treasury yields posted their largest one-day move since the April 2025 tariff episode and the thirty-year reached its highest since 2007. A Treasury buyback operation that fell short of its cap did not help sentiment, filling US$5.19 billion against a US$6 billion limit, only the third shortfall in fifty-three such operations.
The Middle East war and the oil price. Oil is now the single most important variable in markets. Brent traded close to US$110 intraday on Friday before easing back on reports that Iran would meet Gulf states in Oman to discuss arrangements for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The escalation through the week was physical rather than rhetorical. Houthi forces took the Yemeni port of Mocha and are advancing towards Bab al-Mandeb, a 29 kilometre chokepoint narrower than Hormuz itself, and Saudi crude production fell in August to its lowest level since 1990 with exports down roughly a third.
President Trump said prices would not fall until after the November midterms and that the war would end immediately after the election, which is a fairly rare admission that near-term relief is not expected.
Oracle reported quarterly revenue up 30% and cloud infrastructure revenue up 121%, with adjusted earnings comfortably ahead of consensus, and the shares still finished the week lower. It is a clean illustration of how little credit the market is currently extending to growth funded by debt and heavy capital expenditure. The read-through was far better for the hardware suppliers: Dell and Hewlett Packard Enterprise both jumped on Friday once Oracle reaffirmed its capital spending plans, and Dell was the strongest performer among the largest US companies for the week.
Earnings forecasts. Analysts have cut ASX 200 profit growth forecasts for the current financial year to around 9%, from 13% only two months ago. That is a material downgrade in a short window, and it is happening at the same time as the discount rate applied to those earnings is rising.
Portfolio Insights
Indiscriminate software derating (XRO, WTC)
Xero (held) has now given back the entirety of its August rebound, closing lower in every session since 3 September. The last operating update was the annual meeting on 27 August, where FY27 guidance was reaffirmed.
The FY26 result was not the problem. Operating revenue rose 31% to NZ$2.75 billion, annualised monthly recurring revenue rose 37%, and free cash flow reached a 20.1% margin. Reported net profit fell 27%, and that is where the argument sits. Investors are being asked to pay today for profits that arrive later, and the price of “later” has gone up with the bond yield. The shares are now 58.6% below their 52-week high.
WiseTech (held) fell for much the same reason and is down more than half over the calendar year. Neither company told the market anything new last week. This is a repricing of duration, not of the businesses.
Energy was the only place that worked
Santos (held) was one of our two best Australian performers and remains among the strongest names on the ASX this calendar year. It also confirmed it will lift its interest in the US$14 billion Papua LNG project as TotalEnergies cuts its stake to 20%, leaving Santos the second-largest foreign partner behind ExxonMobil.
Woodside (held) also finished higher. One point worth holding onto: the forward oil curve sits well below spot, so the market is treating triple-digit crude as temporary and is not capitalising it into producer valuations. That is why energy equities have lagged the commodity all year.
Quick fall in copper price hits mining stocks
BHP, Rio Tinto and South32 (all held) were caught between a general selloff across industrial metals and a specific one in copper, which fell almost 5% in a single session after reports that the White House has not decided on refined copper tariffs, with affordability concerns weighing against the case for supporting domestic supply. A 15% tariff from January 2027 rising to 30% in 2028 had been put forward. Much of copper’s strength this year came from buyers stockpiling metal in the United States ahead of those duties, so if the duties never arrive the inventory has to find another home. Iron ore slipped back below US$100 a tonne in the same week.
The Week Ahead
- Tuesday 15 September — China’s August activity data, covering retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment, alongside the UK labour market report.
- Wednesday 16 September — US August retail sales and UK August CPI.
- Thursday 17 September (AEST) — the FOMC decision, updated projections and Chair Warsh’s press conference. Pricing moved from roughly even odds to almost 90% in the space of a week, so the increase itself is close to fully priced and the reaction will hinge on the dot plot and the tone of the press conference. Year-end pricing already implies two hikes. The real question is whether the Committee frames the oil shock as a relative price change to look through or as an inflation problem demanding a response, and the answer determines whether the thirty-year Treasury yield stabilises or keeps climbing.
- Earnings — no Akambo holding reports next week. Accenture (held) is next on the calendar, with its fourth-quarter result due the following week and consensus sitting at US$3.19 a share against US$3.03 in the same quarter last year.
Saward Dawson Wealth Advisors Pty Ltd, a Corporate Authorised Representative of Akambo Pty Ltd t/a Accountants Private Advice
The information presented in this publication is general information only, and is not intended to be financial product advice. It has not been prepared taking into account your investment objectives, financial situation or needs, and should not be used as the basis for making an investment decision. Before making any investment decision you need to consider (with your financial adviser) your particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances.
Some numerical figures in this publication have been subject to rounding adjustments. Akambo Pty Ltd (including any of its directors, officers or employees) will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of any reliance on this information. The market commentary reflect Akambo Pty Ltd’s views and beliefs at the time of preparation, which are subject to change without notice.
