14 July 2025 | Weekly Snapshot
Saward Dawson > Wealth Advisory Insights > Weekly Snapshot > 14 July 2025
Did you know?
The United States has the highest stock market participation rate, with 55% of the population owning shares. In Australia, 37% of people own shares for comparison, ranking 3rd in this list.
This could be by the fact that listed US companies treat their investors very well, with both strong returns and on a whole, simpler and more transparent reporting when compared to the ASX for example.
Market Movements
The Australian market was lower by 0.2% last week, led lower by property stocks (down 2.6%) and consumer staples (down 1.8%). Resources were the strongest sector (up 1.4%) in turn led by Illuka (up 30%) and Lynas (up19%). Both stocks rallied in reaction to an announcement by the US government, whereby the US department of defence agreed to by 100% of MP’s rare earth output as it related to the production of magnets at a floor price, which is 25% above current market prices. Rare Earths production is critical mineral in that supply is substantially controlled by China and it is necessary for defensive and EV applications.
On economics, the RBA surprised markets and held the official cash rate at 3.85% in July.
In the US, markets were higher by 0.5%, with energy stocks leading the way (up 3.1%) despite mixed performance in gas prices (down 2.9% and oil (up 1.1%). U.S. President Donald Trump has issued reciprocal tariff letters to 14 nations, announcing new import duties that will take effect from August 1, 2025.
Valuations in the USA are again approach high levels, with the current Price-to-earnings ratio (or PE ratio) at 22x earnings. We saw such valuation levels at the end of 2020 at the onset of COVID-stimulus. Prices rallied through 2021 due to the stimulus-driven earnings boost to shares. Earnings momentum stalled in 2022 at the onset of rising interest rates, which ultimately led to a 20% correction in equity markets. So, the takeaway is that investors should be mindful of earnings performance, because when the valuation starting point is high, there is little room for error. The Akambo earnings outlook includes a modest reduction in US interest rates, further US regulatory and fiscal support and ongoing strength in AI, which is overall a positive. We are however, forever vigilant in monitoring for change.
Portfolio Movements
Amazon Prime Day 2025 was biggest ever
- Amazon announced that their Prime Day 2025 was its biggest Prime Day event ever with record sales and more items sold during the four days.
- This year’s Prime Day experience was enhanced by Alexa+—Amazon’s next-generation personal assistant now available in Early Access to millions of customers—along with the AI-powered shopping assistant, Rufus, and AI Shopping Guides.
- Amazon Prime is a savings, convenience, and entertainment membership with more than 200 million paid Prime members around the world.
Shell lowers Q2 guidance – OPEC increases production
- British oil and gas giant Shell lowered their production guidance in the integrated gas division to 900,000-940,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), from 890,000-950,000 boe/d previously.
- The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) also announced a surprise 548,000 barrels per day production increase starting in August.
- Despite the production increase the oil price rose in response, suggesting that the oil market can potentially absorb the additional supply.
South32 will sell the Cerro Matoso nickel mine, incurring an impairment of US$130m in process
- South32 has announced a binding agreement to sell their Cerro Matoso nickel mine to a subsidiary of CoreX. The Cerro Matoso mine in Colombia is one of the largest open-pit ferronickel mines in the world, and the largest mine in South America.
- The Transaction follows a strategic review in response to structural changes in the nickel market and will further streamline our portfolio toward higher margin businesses in minerals and metals critical to the world’s energy transition, said CEO Graham Kerr.
- The Buyer will make future cash payments of up to US$100M and S32 will record an impairment expense of~US$130M on the asset at the upcoming results.
The Week Ahead
- Tuesday 15 July: USA CPI MoM (June) 0.3% (prior 0.1%), CPI YoY (June) 2.6% (prior 2.4%), CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (June) 0.3% (prior 0.1%), CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (June) 2.9% (prior 2.8%). China GDP YoY (2Q) 5.1% (prior 5.4%), Retail Sales YoY (2Q) 5.2% (prior 6.4%), Industrial Production YoY (June) 5.6% (prior 5.8%).
- Wednesday 16 July: USA PPI Final Demand MoM9 (June) 0.2% (prior 0.1%), Industrial Production MoM (June) 0.1% (prior -0.2%), Retail Sales Advance MoM (June) 0.1% (prior -0.9%).
- Thursday 17 July: USA Initial Jobless Claims (July 12) 233k (prior 227k), Continuing Claims (July 5) 1,965k (prior 1,965k). Australia Employment Change (June) 20k (prior -2.5k), Unemployment Rate (June) 4.1% (prior 4.1%).
- Friday 18 July: USA Housing Starts (June) 1,295k (prior 1,256k).
- Saturday 19 July: USA University of Michigan Sentiment (July preliminary) 61.4 (prior 60.7).
Saward Dawson Wealth Advisors Pty Ltd, a Corporate Authorised Representative of Akambo Pty Ltd t/a Accountants Private Advice
The information presented in this publication is general information only, and is not intended to be financial product advice. It has not been prepared taking into account your investment objectives, financial situation or needs, and should not be used as the basis for making an investment decision. Before making any investment decision you need to consider (with your financial adviser) your particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances.
Some numerical figures in this publication have been subject to rounding adjustments. Akambo Pty Ltd (including any of its directors, officers or employees) will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of any reliance on this information. The market commentary reflect Akambo Pty Ltd’s views and beliefs at the time of preparation, which are subject to change without notice.
