13 October 2025 | Weekly Snapshot

Saward Dawson > Wealth Advisory Insights > Weekly Snapshot > 13 October 2025

Did you know?

Datacentres in the USA consume approx. 5.2% of national electricity supply. This is expected to double to around 11.7% by the year 2030. This is putting pressure on electricity prices, all the while building the need to upgrade and expand the electricity grid.

Market Movements

The ASX market was down 0.3% last week, despite only the healthcare (up 0.4%) and industrials (up 0.4%) sectors higher. Consumer discretionary stocks (down 1.8%) and energy (down 1.4%) were the worst performers with oil falling another 4% last week and is now lower by 16% over 2025. S32 rallied 11.7%, whilst Bluescope led the market lower (down 7.9%).

Bigger action on the US market late Friday where China/US trade tensions re-surfaced. Ahead of a scheduled meeting between the two leaders later this week, China strongarmed their rare earths controls, in what seems like a negotiation tactic straight out of the Trump playbook. Trump initially fired back with tariff threats but later took to social media with a softer stance. The US market finished the Friday session down some 3%. Futures re-opened Monday with a bounce, regaining half Friday’s losses. Consumer stocks finished the week down 4.1% along with energy (down 4%). Only the defensive sectors were higher (Utilities up 0.5% and staples up 0.9%). Ford was lower by 10%, with uncertainty building around Ford’s ability to compete in a driverless auto future, posing the question as to whether increased levels of ride sharing will lead to lower levels of car ownership.

On economics, Australia consumer confidence dips 3.3% for October. At the last meeting on the 29-September, the RBA decided to hold interest rates steady at 3.6%. Markets are still pricing in 2 more cuts to 3.0% by early 2026 as per below chart.

Portfolio Movements

S32 to sell Trilogy Metals shares to US govt as Ambler access road gets go ahead

South32 has agreed to sell its stake in Canadian listed Trilogy Metals shares to the US Defence Department as part of a deal for the U.S. to take a 10% stake in the company (Trilogy) and approving a 200-mile access road to the minerals-rich Ambler region in Alaska.
South32 and Trilogy jointly own (50/50) the Ambler Metals project which includes deposits of copper, zinc, silver, cobalt, and other metals the US govt considers essential for national security. The project had been stranded without road access but S32’s stake is estimated to be worth around $1.5 billion now that the project can move from exploration into development in the years ahead.
Trilogy shares rallied 250% on the news with S32 CEO Graham Kerr saying, “We see great value in the U.S. government’s intention to develop the Ambler Mining District,”
S32 shares were higher by 11.7% last week.

ANZ strategy day underway

ANZ’s 2030 strategy day is underway as the new CEO Nuno Matos outlines his plans for the Bank after making several large changes since starting in the role in May.
Some headlines include cancelling what’s left of the $800 mill buyback, aiming for a cost to income ratio in the mid 40’s by FY28, looking to grow the Private Bank, increase the number of commercial bankers by up to 50%, increase branch mortgage lenders by up to 50%, deliver $800 mill in gross savings in FY26, realise $500 mill in Suncorp synergies, increase return on tangible equity towards 12% by FY28 and 13% by FY30.
ANZ trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15x, which is almost half the valuation of CBA, so there is a lot of opportunity to close the gap.

James Hardie upgrades Q2 guidance

James Hardie has upgraded Q2 guidance this week, after downgrading the Q2 outlook in their recent Q1 report 6 weeks ago which was a contributing factor to the share price plunge then.
Q2 EPS guidance is now $0.26-0.27 ex-items vs consensus that had fallen to $0.17. Q2 adjusted EBITDA guidance is now $326-331M vs consensus of $277.5.
Management noted “Our Siding & Trim sales performance exceeded the expectations reflected in our modelling considerations. Siding & Trim Q2 organic net sales fell low single-digits as distributors and dealers reduced inventory less than we had anticipated” adding “”We are encouraged by our Q2 results and believe the outlook for Siding & Trim has modestly improved.”
James hardies shares were higher by 7.3% last week.

The Week Ahead

Monday 13 October: China Exports YoY (Sep) 6.6% (prior 4.4%), Imports YoY (Sep) 1.8% (prior 1.3%), Trade Balance (Sep) $98.05b (prior $102.33b), PPI YoY (Sep) -2.3% (prior -2.9%), CPI YoY (Sep) -0.2% (prior -0.4%).
Thursday 16 October: USA Retail Sales Advance MoM (Sep) 0.4% (prior 0.6%), PPI Final Demand MoM (Sep) 0.3% (prior -0.1%), PPI Final Deman YoY (Sep) 2.7% (prior 2.8%), Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 11) 230k (–no prior data due to US Govt Shutdown–). Australia Unemployment Rate (Sep) 4.3% (prior 4.2%), Employment Changes (Sep) 20.k (prior -5.4k). UK Industrial Production MoM (Aug) 0.2% (prior -0.9%), Manufacturing Production MoM (Aug) 0.1% (prior -1.3%).
Friday 17 October: USA Housing Starts (Sept) 1,320k (prior 1,307k), Building Permits (Sep P) 1,342k (prior 1,330k).

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Saward Dawson Wealth Advisors Pty Ltd, a Corporate Authorised Representative of Akambo Pty Ltd t/a Accountants Private Advice

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