12 October 2026 | Weekly Snapshot
Saward Dawson > Wealth Advisory Insights > Weekly Snapshot > 12 October 2026
Did you know?
Data-centre developer Firmus withdrew their IPO on Friday in what would have been the ASX’s largest float since Telstra. Four things worked against it.
First, the shares were offered at a fixed A$11 rather than across a price range, so the institutional bookbuild became a take-it-or-leave-it test instead of a genuine process of price discovery.
Second, no cornerstone investor was announced. UniSuper said publicly it would not invest, existing backers such as Nvidia were not reported to be adding to their stakes, and escrow terms would have let existing holders sell more than half their shares from the first day.
Third, A$11 valued Firmus at about A$44 billion, more than 850 times last year’s revenue (approx $50m). This was a stretch compared to an August raising, where Nvidia (et al) tipped in $2bn in cash for a much lower valuation of $15bn.
Fourth, the lack of detail raised eyebrows. No prospectus was lodged. Only institutions saw a draft, leaving retail investors shut out.
We expect Firmus to seek a US listing or have another attempt on the ASX at a lower valuation
Market Movements
The ASX rose 0.4% last week, but the gain was carried by the largest companies, with the Small Ordinaries down 1.3%. Defensive sectors led, with property trusts up 3.7% and utilities and health care not far behind, while materials was the weakest sector, down 1.0%, on falls among lithium, iron ore and uranium miners.
Yields hold near 15-year highs. Australian 10-year bond yields touched 5.40% midweek before easing to 5.36% on Friday, leaving them little changed for the week and close to their highest level since 2011. Inflation expectations rose to a four-month high, which keeps the pressure on the RBA after its fourth rate rise of the year took the cash rate to 4.60%. The minutes of that meeting are released on Tuesday. The Australian dollar posted its first weekly gain in five weeks.
The S&P 500 rose 1.2% and set a record high on Tuesday, while the Nasdaq added 0.6%. That came despite a bond market that would normally unsettle equities. The US 10-year Treasury yield reached about 5.35% on Wednesday, its highest level since 2002, as energy-driven inflation, heavy government borrowing and the Fed’s September hike pushed investors to demand more to lend for longer.
Brent crude stayed above US$100 a barrel. It eased on Friday after President Trump said the US would not attack Iran before next month’s midterm elections.
The AI trade gets a revenue check. Thursday’s sell-off showed how sensitive the AI complex has become to evidence of end demand. The Financial Times reported that OpenAI had told investors its annualised revenue was approaching US$50 billion at the end of September, well short of the US$68–70 billion figure that circulated late last month. The gap largely reflects how revenue is counted (the higher figure included sales made through partners) rather than lost sales.
Even so, Oracle, whose cloud backlog is heavily tied to OpenAI, fell 5.5% on the day and Nvidia nearly 3%. Over the week the damage was greatest in chip-making equipment and memory, with Intel down 12.3% and Lam Research down 8.2%, while software names such as Palantir rallied.
US earnings consensus. Third-quarter reporting season starts this week with the big banks. FactSet’s latest data shows analysts expect S&P 500 earnings growth of 29.5% on a year earlier, which would be a third straight quarter above 25%, on revenue growth of 12.3%. Unusually, estimates have risen through the quarter (up 1.4%, against a five-year average decline of 2.2%), and a record 72 companies have issued positive earnings guidance, 44 of them in technology.
Portfolio Insights
American Tower (AMT, held) gained 12.4%, with most of the move on Friday after SpaceX agreed to buy a US$8 billion portfolio of 800 MHz spectrum licences from private equity firm Grain Management. The spectrum sets SpaceX up to build a ground-based mobile network.
For tower owners, a new network operator means new tenants, whichever carrier ultimately wins the customers. The established carriers fell on the prospect of a new competitor, with Verizon down 9.3%, T-Mobile down 9.2% and AT&T down 8.7%.
The stock was also helped earlier in the week as rate-sensitive property stocks rebounded. Third-quarter results are due on 27 October.
Constellation Energy (CEG, held) rose 15.8%, the best performer across our holdings, after announcing a 20-year power agreement with Google. Google will fund upgrades across eleven of Constellation’s nuclear units, adding new carbon-free capacity to the PJM grid in the eastern US. Peer Vistra rose 15.3% alongside it.
The deal is another example of technology companies signing long-dated contracts for reliable, around-the-clock power, with nuclear operators the main beneficiaries. It also links to this week’s Did You Know?: much of the money flowing into AI infrastructure is coming from the balance sheets of the largest technology companies rather than from the revenue of AI developers themselves.
ASX Ltd rises on broker upgrades after strong September quarter. ASX Ltd (held) was the best performer in the ASX 200 on some broker upgrades after its September quarter update, which showed a surge in futures volumes as interest rate contracts responded to the RBA’s rate increase. September futures and options average daily volume was up 44% on the prior year, while total capital raised fell 84% to $4.2 billion.
Attention now turns to the AGM on 22 October, where the new CEO will make his first address to the market.
The Week Ahead
- Tuesday 13 October: RBA minutes (September meeting). These cover the decision to raise the cash rate for a fourth time this year, to 4.60%. The RBA said energy prices are well above the levels assumed in its August forecasts, but also that the economy appears to be losing momentum after the earlier hikes. The market will be reading for whether a fifth rise before Christmas is genuinely in play.
JPMorgan (JPM, held) reports Tuesday before the US open (Tuesday night AEDT): revenue consensus US$51.2bn vs US$46.4bn a year ago (+10.3%), EPS consensus US$5.93 vs US$5.07 (+16.9%). - Wednesday 14 October (Thursday morning AEDT):
US CPI (Sep) MoM consensus 0.6% (prior 0.4%), YoY consensus 3.6% (prior 3.4%); Core CPI (Sep) MoM consensus 0.2% (prior 0.3%), YoY consensus 2.5% (prior 2.4%). Markets price only around a 20% chance of another hike on 28 October after the soft September payrolls report, with December fully priced; a hot core reading would bring October back into play.
Bank of America (BAC, held) reports Wednesday: revenue consensus US$30.6bn vs US$28.1bn (+8.9%), EPS consensus US$1.10 vs US$1.06 (+3.6%). Estimates have moved in opposite directions: JPMorgan has received the most upgrades in the sector, while Bank of America has had 18 downward EPS revisions and none upward over the past 100 days. Net interest income guidance is the key metric for both. A steeper yield curve helps lending margins, but the S&P 500 banks index has fallen 7.5% over the past month, so commentary on what 24-year-high bond yields mean for credit quality will matter as much as the headline numbers.
Locally, Rio Tinto (RIO, held) releases its third-quarter operations review on Wednesday morning; iron ore shipments are the figure to watch after Fortescue’s fall last week. - Thursday 15 October:
Australia Employment Change (Sep) consensus +20.0k (prior +39.5k), Unemployment Rate (Sep) consensus 4.6% (prior 4.6%). After four hikes, a rise in unemployment would support the RBA’s view that the economy is losing momentum and weaken the case for a fifth increase; a firm result would do the opposite.
Saward Dawson Wealth Advisors Pty Ltd, a Corporate Authorised Representative of Akambo Pty Ltd t/a Accountants Private Advice
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Some numerical figures in this publication have been subject to rounding adjustments. Akambo Pty Ltd (including any of its directors, officers or employees) will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of any reliance on this information. The market commentary reflect Akambo Pty Ltd’s views and beliefs at the time of preparation, which are subject to change without notice.
