1 June 2026 | Weekly Snapshot
Saward Dawson > Wealth Advisory Insights > Weekly Snapshot > 1 June 2026
Did you know?
Only 10 stocks drove 69% of the S&P 500’s 17% rally since late March — and nearly all of them are AI infrastructure companies. AMD more than doubled (+131%), Micron more than doubled (+110%), Alphabet rose 40%, Broadcom 38%, and Nvidia 29%. Strip out the AI-linked stocks entirely and the S&P 500 has gone essentially nowhere since February — the ex-AI index actually fell 1.8% over the period.
This concentration is historically unusual. AI-linked stocks now account for a record 45% of S&P 500 market capitalisation, and the gap between the headline index and the ex-AI version has widened to 44 percentage points over three years (76% vs 32%).
Market Movements
The AI infrastructure rally intensified again. Dell surged 42.6% in a single week on blowout AI server demand, taking its year-to-date gain to an extraordinary 234%. Micron added 29.3% (+240% CYTD) as HBM supply constraints tightened further. The Nasdaq gained 2.4% for the week and is now +16.2% for the year, with the S&P 500 at +10.7%. This rally remains narrowly concentrated — strip out the AI names and the market has gone nowhere since February.
The other big story was oil. WTI crude fell 11.1% to $92 — the sharpest weekly decline since the Iran conflict began in late February and the first-time oil has traded below $100 since March. Whether this reflects genuine progress on ceasefire talks, demand destruction from the economic slowdown the oil shock itself caused or simply profit-taking after a 70% run remains to be seen. For portfolios, the ASX Energy sector paused (-0.9% for the week) but remains comfortably the best-performing sector CYTD at +23.3%, followed by Resources at +20.1%.
The ASX continues to lag, now -0.6% CYTD versus the S&P’s +10.7% — an 11.3 percentage point gap that has barely narrowed despite the recent resource rally. Healthcare remains the deepest drawdown at -31.8% CYTD, Consumer Discretionary at -10.5%, and Property at -7.3%. The bright spots are Resources and Consumer Discretionary, which bounced 1.8% and 3.3% respectively this week.
In the single names, IDP Education collapsed 17.4% for the week and is now down 61.4% for the year — the international education sector continues to struggle under visa policy tightening. South32 rallied 8.8% on the back of strong aluminium and copper prices. Gold edged up 0.9% to $4,561, holding above $4,500 after its pullback from the $5,595 April peak.
On economics, Aussie Headline CPI rose 4.2% in April, down from 4.6% last month, and below the 4.4% expected with the downside surprise largely driven by the government’s temporary fuel excise reduction which has temporarily (until the end of June) cut fuel prices by around 30 cents a litre. In the USA, April Core PCE inflation rose to 3.3% as expected but the highest since 2023 with US inflation still nowhere near the Fed’s 2% target. US Q1 GDP growth was revised to a lower than expected 1.6 from the initial 2% estimate. USA’s May consumer confidence at 93.1 was slightly higher than expected although consumers remain increasingly concerned about oil prices.
Portfolio Movements
Santos Investor Briefing Day points to step change in production and shareholder returns.
- Santos held their 2026 Investor Briefing Day, with management highlighting that the company has completed a phase of intensive capital investment and is now preparing for a 25-30% increase in production, expected to drive a step change in revenue, free cash flow and shareholder returns.
- The growth ramp is being driven by first LNG cargo from the Barossa project (now shipped via Darwin LNG to Japan), Pikka phase 1 in Alaska nearing first oil with plateau production targeted by Q3 2026, continued production from PNG LNG and the Moomba Cooper Basin optimisation project. 2025 production was 87.7 mmboe with FY26 guidance of 101-111 mmboe.
- Under the capital framework announced at the 2024 Investor Day, Santos will return at least 60% of all-in free cash flow to shareholders from 2026, rising to 100% when gearing falls below the 15-25% target range. The Middle East conflict has reinforced the strategic value of Australian LNG supply into Asia.
Meta launches paid subscriptions across Instagram, Facebook, and WhatsApp
- Meta has launched global consumer subscription plans for its three flagship apps, with Instagram Plus and Facebook Plus priced at US$3.99 per month and WhatsApp Plus at US$2.99 per month, offering enhanced features such as profile customisation, story insights, super reactions, and expanded messaging personalisation tools while keeping core services free.
- The company is also testing a broader subscription framework called “Meta One,” which will serve as the hub for paid services across apps and AI tools, with two AI-focused tiers under testing: Meta One Plus at US$7.99 per month and Meta One Premium at $19.99, the latter offering greater computing power and expanded image and video generation capabilities.
- Meta’s shares rose on the news with the move representing a significant push to diversify revenue beyond advertising.
ASX Ltd shares lower on increased FY27 expenses guidance
- ASX shares fell after surprising the market with updated FY27 capex guidance for $180-200 million from the prior $160-180 million guide and introduced FY28 capex guidance of $170-190 million, all higher than consensus and our estimates that were for FY27 cost growth to slow.
- The higher expenses directly weight on profits with FY27 earnings estimates cut 10-15% on the news.
- The cost ramp follows ASIC’s final inquiry report and reflects technology cost inflation, the CHESS replacement program, and the expanded Accelerate Program. FY-to-date operating revenue has surged 12.5% to $1.03 billion, ahead of expectations with strong volumes across all four divisions but not enough to offset the higher costs.
The Week Ahead
- Monday 1 June: China NBS Manufacturing PMI (June) — consensus ~52.0. Prior (May): 52.2. Prior year (Jun 2025): ~49.5. The April reading was the strongest since December 2020, and a sustained print above 50 would confirm China’s manufacturing recovery is durable despite the Iran conflict disruption.
- Tuesday 2 June: Australia RBA Minutes (May meeting) — the minutes from the meeting where the Board hiked to 4.10%. Markets will scrutinise the language around whether the Board sees this as a one-off insurance hike or the start of a tightening cycle. The April CPI came in at 4.2% YoY (below 4.4% consensus) which supports the one-and-done narrative.
- Wednesday 3 June: Australia GDP Q1 2026 (ABS) — Consensus: +0.5% QoQ. Prior (Q4 2025): +0.8% QoQ. Prior year (Q1 2025): +0.4% QoQ. Westpac forecasts the 0.5% print will be the last positive quarter for a while, warning that Q2 2026 could deliver the first quarterly contraction since the GFC (excluding COVID) as the full impact of the Iran/Hormuz conflict feeds through.
- Thursday 4 June: US ISM Services PMI (May) — consensus ~51.5. Prior: 51.8. Prior year (May 2025): ~53.8. Services has been the resilient pillar of the US economy; any print below 50 would signal the oil-shock-driven slowdown is broadening beyond manufacturing. US Initial Jobless Claims — consensus ~218K. Prior: 215K. Prior year: ~220K. Australia Trade Balance (April).
- Friday 5 June: US Nonfarm Payrolls (May) — consensus ~170K. Prior (Apr): ~175K. Prior year (May 2025): ~180K. The labour market has been remarkably resilient through the oil shock — any significant miss below 150K would reignite recession fears and potentially accelerate Fed rate cut expectations. US Unemployment Rate (May) — consensus 4.2%. Prior: 4.2%. Prior year: 4.0%. Average Hourly Earnings (May) — consensus +0.3% MoM.
Saward Dawson Wealth Advisors Pty Ltd, a Corporate Authorised Representative of Akambo Pty Ltd t/a Accountants Private Advice
The information presented in this publication is general information only, and is not intended to be financial product advice. It has not been prepared taking into account your investment objectives, financial situation or needs, and should not be used as the basis for making an investment decision. Before making any investment decision you need to consider (with your financial adviser) your particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances.
Some numerical figures in this publication have been subject to rounding adjustments. Akambo Pty Ltd (including any of its directors, officers or employees) will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of any reliance on this information. The market commentary reflect Akambo Pty Ltd’s views and beliefs at the time of preparation, which are subject to change without notice.
